{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbc81c38-7bd4-485e-9c8e-495b89bfe9aa", "symbol": "KYTX", "name": "Kyverna Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.276, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.398, "architecture_energy": 52.311, "architecture_maturity": 5.961, "architecture_confidence": 89.507, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.49, "rotation_up": 14.51, "upward_expansion": 13.41, "deceleration": 35.72, "rotation_down": 59.07, "downward_expansion": 82.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.641, 7.884364, 8.210333, 8.307097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.96, "trend_reference": 8.374667, "distance_from_trend": -0.049514, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.087977, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015823, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.518622, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003783, "excess_performance": -0.183671, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049514, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004197, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015823, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173153, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075186, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.32579, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003783, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.90104, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2900523, "relative_activity": 0.582058, "balance": 0.90104, "dry_up": 0.949742, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138274, "annualized_volatility": 0.533789, "from_high_reference": -0.417703, "from_low_reference": 1.842857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.374667, "fair_value_reference": 8.087977, "structural_low": 6.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096866, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061995, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.852041, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.292969, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", 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"volume": 4358551, "typical_volume": 4958999.8, "trend": 8.435667, "fair_value": 8.095078, "relative_strength": -7.574551, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.371003, "energy": 35.972807, "activity_lines": [ 7.901667, 8.047091, 8.374571, 8.407892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.3, "volume": 4493571, "typical_volume": 5017419.75, "trend": 8.386667, "fair_value": 8.088962, "relative_strength": -10.090099, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.999092, "energy": 55.226414, "activity_lines": [ 7.623333, 7.893273, 8.257095, 8.334624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.96, "volume": 2900523, "typical_volume": 4983223.55, "trend": 8.374667, "fair_value": 8.087977, "relative_strength": -7.518622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.398149, "energy": 52.310784, "activity_lines": [ 7.641, 7.884364, 8.210333, 8.307097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }