{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbc9ba6f-79dd-497b-b88d-6200266503a3", "symbol": "IJT", "name": "ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP 600 GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.887, "architecture_energy": 56.109, "architecture_maturity": 82.328, "architecture_confidence": 56.633, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.77, "rotation_up": 49.14, "upward_expansion": 75.83, "deceleration": 71.05, "rotation_down": 28.39, "downward_expansion": 13.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 174.005333, 173.588135, 169.331228, 164.606888 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 176.97, "trend_reference": 159.119546, "distance_from_trend": 0.112183, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 134.33599, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.317368, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.606924, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.160697, "excess_performance": -0.026757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.112183, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067411, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.317368, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055272, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026069, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066537, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.160697, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.711505, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1600867, "relative_activity": 1.947065, "balance": 0.711505, "dry_up": 1.286302, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031053, "annualized_volatility": 0.160379, "from_high_reference": -0.015082, "from_low_reference": 0.338735 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 159.119546, "fair_value_reference": 134.33599, "structural_low": 139.110162, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.004391, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.012028, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.073964, "worst_return": -0.066007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.022746, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.037466, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.09121, "worst_return": -0.135693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062723, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.036761, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.085614, "worst_return": -0.095118, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "up", "direction": 67.560327, "energy": 86.089597, "activity_lines": [ 174.277028, 170.332287, 164.413491, 160.264164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 172.88, "volume": 478376, "typical_volume": 710129.25, "trend": 156.223087, "fair_value": 133.208608, "relative_strength": 4.559793, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.275204, "energy": 83.345529, "activity_lines": [ 174.171333, 171.332525, 165.757767, 161.401695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 171.46, "volume": 1450737, "typical_volume": 753445.85, "trend": 157.105376, "fair_value": 133.562404, "relative_strength": 5.282606, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.333509, "energy": 60.765806, "activity_lines": [ 173.318667, 171.901918, 166.866331, 162.384722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 172.7, "volume": 700383, "typical_volume": 767390.3, "trend": 158.121053, "fair_value": 133.930499, "relative_strength": 5.339139, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.89348, "energy": 53.563982, "activity_lines": [ 172.83, 172.456971, 167.967995, 163.390827 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 176.97, "volume": 1600867, "typical_volume": 822194.9, "trend": 159.119546, "fair_value": 134.33599, "relative_strength": 2.606924, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.887176, "energy": 56.108651, "activity_lines": [ 174.005333, 173.588135, 169.331228, 164.606888 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }