{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbca2dd9-18b5-4ed3-95dc-a46c8e2ce9cb", "symbol": "EWH", "name": "ISHARES INC MSCI HONG KONG ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.448, "architecture_energy": 24.726, "architecture_maturity": 63.451, "architecture_confidence": 51.664, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.18, "rotation_up": 60.58, "upward_expansion": 34.65, "deceleration": 38.35, "rotation_down": 14.78, "downward_expansion": 23.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.606667, 22.111507, 22.273409, 22.423139 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.71, "trend_reference": 22.582625, "distance_from_trend": 0.00564, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.704365, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282735, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.239743, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023548, "excess_performance": -0.149173, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00564, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007846, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282735, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101463, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072397, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087651, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023548, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.758733, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15627741, "relative_activity": 0.922279, "balance": 0.758733, "dry_up": 0.929594, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032595, "annualized_volatility": 0.171108, "from_high_reference": -0.064332, "from_low_reference": 0.156396 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.582625, "fair_value_reference": 17.704365, "structural_low": 20.78, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.015531, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.020285, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.228571, "worst_return": -0.08493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.041872, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.027693, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.163648, "worst_return": -0.09485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.021938, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.078896, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.07009, "worst_return": -0.160632, 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3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.590509, "energy": 52.658408, "activity_lines": [ 21.496667, 21.617814, 22.171525, 22.371348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.55, "volume": 14740786, "typical_volume": 18987410.75, "trend": 22.506083, "fair_value": 17.621702, "relative_strength": -3.794976, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.230025, "energy": 23.518886, "activity_lines": [ 21.890667, 21.726611, 22.18385, 22.3763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.08, "volume": 15904069, "typical_volume": 17750722.95, "trend": 22.557903, "fair_value": 17.662794, "relative_strength": -2.564735, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.052529, "energy": 19.30723, "activity_lines": [ 22.376667, 21.952333, 22.247864, 22.413327 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.71, "volume": 15627741, "typical_volume": 16944700.3, "trend": 22.582625, "fair_value": 17.704365, "relative_strength": -7.239743, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.447818, "energy": 24.725956, "activity_lines": [ 22.606667, 22.111507, 22.273409, 22.423139 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }