{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "cbcfc9ab-c531-48d3-8e57-a1d978c5883d",
    "symbol": "CDRE",
    "name": "Cadre Holdings Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -2.914,
    "architecture_energy": 9.139,
    "architecture_maturity": 82.479,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.215,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 68.65,
        "rotation_up": 31.33,
        "upward_expansion": 29.6,
        "deceleration": 49.87,
        "rotation_down": 16.18,
        "downward_expansion": 40.27
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        31.099278,
        30.213714,
        30.087424,
        31.202151
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 32.82,
    "trend_reference": 33.640122,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.024379,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 33.537654,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021398,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -18.301696,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.208985,
    "excess_performance": -0.33461,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.024379,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.107608,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021398,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.069292,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.183017,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.085327,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.208985,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.016746,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3350609,
      "relative_activity": 1.680732,
      "balance": 1.016746,
      "dry_up": 1.03328,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.104632,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.521322,
      "from_high_reference": -0.324651,
      "from_low_reference": 0.275554
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 33.640122,
      "fair_value_reference": 33.537654,
      "structural_low": 25.73,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.048861,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.03644,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.107246,
        "worst_return": -0.082695,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.015414,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.031583,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.298778,
        "worst_return": -0.113229,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.23,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.152411,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.028259,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
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        "median_excess_return": 0.124507,
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        "worst_return": 0.334169,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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      {
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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      {
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      {
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "return": 0.030264,
        "active": false
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        "active": false
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        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 30.760226,
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        "typical_volume": 2062911.85,
        "trend": 34.282928,
        "fair_value": 33.43228,
        "relative_strength": -20.359273,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 30.83,
        "volume": 2067519,
        "typical_volume": 1947148.4,
        "trend": 33.947911,
        "fair_value": 33.484906,
        "relative_strength": -20.726246,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -33.025758,
        "energy": 17.63739,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.076444,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 32.82,
        "volume": 3350609,
        "typical_volume": 1993541.55,
        "trend": 33.640122,
        "fair_value": 33.537654,
        "relative_strength": -18.301696,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -2.914221,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}