{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbdbc3fb-0b89-4bac-a87c-00e49a8c80b4", "symbol": "CSSG", "name": "Croma Security Solutions Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 69.47, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.076, "architecture_energy": 8.148, "architecture_maturity": 11.55, "architecture_confidence": 62.833, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.63, "rotation_up": 29.28, "upward_expansion": 31.37, "deceleration": 40.27, "rotation_down": 23.35, "downward_expansion": 42.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.690333, 0.685727, 0.68169, 0.687011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.7, "trend_reference": 0.698333, "distance_from_trend": 0.002387, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.700591, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.000843, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.377529, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.047619, "excess_performance": -0.098854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002387, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038064, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.000843, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007147, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103775, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055325, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.550934, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58225, "relative_activity": 3.743326, "balance": 4.550934, "dry_up": 2.345968, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055934, "annualized_volatility": 0.107074, "from_high_reference": -0.170357, "from_low_reference": 0.093622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.698333, "fair_value_reference": 0.700591, "structural_low": 0.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.028412, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.042644, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.161765, "worst_return": -0.100841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.064163, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.091118, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.357371, "worst_return": -0.176471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.058796, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.152608, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.461784, "worst_return": -0.226892, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.244444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144471, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070175, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02809, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00578, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.289246, "energy": 9.105173, "activity_lines": [ 0.688667, 0.682818, 0.680881, 0.688785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.675, "volume": 17405, "typical_volume": 14267.5, "trend": 0.700167, "fair_value": 0.698829, "relative_strength": -13.85275, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.280082, "energy": 11.431973, "activity_lines": [ 0.685667, 0.682, 0.679976, 0.687022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.7, "volume": 58225, "typical_volume": 15554.35, "trend": 0.698333, "fair_value": 0.700591, "relative_strength": -10.377529, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.075958, "energy": 8.147781, "activity_lines": [ 0.690333, 0.685727, 0.68169, 0.687011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }