{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbdef60c-5d61-466e-a614-1b21fff2df99", "symbol": "AGIO", "name": "Agios Pharm", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.734, "architecture_energy": 20.435, "architecture_maturity": 64.881, "architecture_confidence": 71.244, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.88, "rotation_up": 29.52, "upward_expansion": 64.43, "deceleration": 85.41, "rotation_down": 33.53, "downward_expansion": 19.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.064, 35.229091, 33.372667, 32.306215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.27, "trend_reference": 30.895667, "distance_from_trend": 0.044483, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.669038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041553, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.087675, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.216359, "excess_performance": 0.028905, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044483, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051088, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041553, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119039, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140877, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165471, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.216359, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.35224, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5765531, "relative_activity": 1.023823, "balance": 1.35224, "dry_up": 1.070256, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125778, "annualized_volatility": 0.740162, "from_high_reference": -0.298478, "from_low_reference": 0.450989 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.895667, "fair_value_reference": 33.669038, "structural_low": 24.29, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.007152, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039342, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.442727, "worst_return": -0.477774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.103633, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.05328, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.521572, "worst_return": -0.341334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.2865, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.388672, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.38319, "worst_return": -0.440186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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71.781912, "energy": 84.882029, "activity_lines": [ 39.044667, 35.839636, 33.087857, 31.866452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.36, "volume": 6610369, "typical_volume": 5265274.4, "trend": 30.672333, "fair_value": 33.603846, "relative_strength": 0.885141, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.326957, "energy": 80.415701, "activity_lines": [ 38.466, 36.378909, 33.545571, 32.251333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.02, "volume": 8219317, "typical_volume": 5540585.3, "trend": 30.767, "fair_value": 33.633077, "relative_strength": -16.558307, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.629051, "energy": 36.052162, "activity_lines": [ 35.627333, 35.616545, 33.357143, 32.209247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.27, "volume": 5765531, "typical_volume": 5631377.1, "trend": 30.895667, "fair_value": 33.669038, "relative_strength": -14.087675, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.734059, "energy": 20.435281, "activity_lines": [ 34.064, 35.229091, 33.372667, 32.306215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }