{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbe3c95e-2952-4805-ba96-09be24e7c31b", "symbol": "TPS", "name": "The Practical Solution Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.503, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.231, "architecture_energy": 7.674, "architecture_maturity": 12.64, "architecture_confidence": 91.178, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.52, "rotation_up": 21.51, "upward_expansion": 28.48, "deceleration": 43.64, "rotation_down": 25.83, "downward_expansion": 39.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.181333, 3.177455, 3.170431, 3.180176 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.18, "trend_reference": 3.204308, "distance_from_trend": -0.007586, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.068841, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036222, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.048896, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035949, "excess_performance": -0.228274, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007586, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017881, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036222, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035602, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160489, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030849, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035949, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.232774, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58100, "relative_activity": 0.243902, "balance": 1.232774, "dry_up": 1.199362, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029028, "annualized_volatility": 0.156606, "from_high_reference": -0.136897, "from_low_reference": 0.09174 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.204308, "fair_value_reference": 3.068841, "structural_low": 3.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.004505, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.034833, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.413333, "worst_return": -0.055556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.056, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.040685, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.583925, "worst_return": -0.054878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.06762, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.108762, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.36937, "worst_return": 0.000374, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121795, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079365, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006024, 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"activity_lines": [ 3.18, 3.160364, 3.167381, 3.186634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.18, "volume": 192600, "typical_volume": 283210.0, "trend": 3.204592, "fair_value": 3.060046, "relative_strength": -18.123706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.244438, "energy": 13.009359, "activity_lines": [ 3.181333, 3.164727, 3.168032, 3.184959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.18, "volume": 200400, "typical_volume": 239885.0, "trend": 3.203854, "fair_value": 3.063856, "relative_strength": -18.069729, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.855144, "energy": 10.470526, "activity_lines": [ 3.181333, 3.170182, 3.168787, 3.183372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.18, "volume": 691700, "typical_volume": 258210.0, "trend": 3.205688, "fair_value": 3.066898, "relative_strength": -16.869781, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.858557, "energy": 10.161443, "activity_lines": [ 3.182667, 3.174182, 3.169648, 3.181833 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.18, "volume": 58100, "typical_volume": 238210.0, "trend": 3.204308, "fair_value": 3.068841, "relative_strength": -16.048896, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.230954, "energy": 7.674304, "activity_lines": [ 3.181333, 3.177455, 3.170431, 3.180176 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }