{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbe741c9-494c-4967-a253-df3273461b72", "symbol": "MANUGRAPH", "name": "Manugraph India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.314, "architecture_energy": 18.241, "architecture_maturity": 35.153, "architecture_confidence": 82.448, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.24, "rotation_up": 29.9, "upward_expansion": 52.5, "deceleration": 87.42, "rotation_down": 29.48, "downward_expansion": 20.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.914666, 15.007636, 14.921476, 14.627312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.139999, "trend_reference": 14.492, "distance_from_trend": 0.113718, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.175833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200033, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.587217, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.033953, "excess_performance": 0.077662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113718, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034789, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200033, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099451, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025872, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150816, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033953, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.572412, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67761, "relative_activity": 0.994321, "balance": 1.572412, "dry_up": 1.055405, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110142, "annualized_volatility": 0.515768, "from_high_reference": -0.3275, "from_low_reference": 0.672539 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.492, "fair_value_reference": 20.175833, "structural_low": 9.65, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.003369, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060104, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.14604, "worst_return": -0.164052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012758, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026003, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.409302, "worst_return": -0.305692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.117453, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00309, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.430189, "worst_return": -0.239568, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.054884, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.208954, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.24151, "worst_return": -0.265096, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067308, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.167462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033951, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010886, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.215792, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09186, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109966, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018535, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164052, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060443, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.133956, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05676, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027886, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078156, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 18.35, "volume": 203991, "typical_volume": 343471.4, "trend": 17.688333, "fair_value": 14.580769, "relative_strength": 4.166584, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", 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"Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.551329, "energy": 16.730967, "activity_lines": [ 15.446667, 15.384727, 14.644762, 14.565742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.99, "volume": 18558, "typical_volume": 87211.2, "trend": 14.671667, "fair_value": 20.279936, "relative_strength": -10.008058, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.575144, "energy": 10.229149, "activity_lines": [ 15.230667, 15.358182, 14.716762, 14.584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.97, "volume": 79402, "typical_volume": 73264.95, "trend": 14.636333, "fair_value": 20.257308, "relative_strength": -10.09449, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.460062, "energy": 7.023629, "activity_lines": [ 15.113333, 15.309818, 14.787238, 14.603247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.51, "volume": 79786, "typical_volume": 70365.65, "trend": 14.547, "fair_value": 20.225962, "relative_strength": -16.388231, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.199267, "energy": 14.497919, "activity_lines": [ 14.539333, 14.983818, 14.719333, 14.530581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.39, "volume": 60746, "typical_volume": 69904.45, "trend": 14.483667, "fair_value": 20.19641, "relative_strength": -12.728876, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.516167, "energy": 10.247032, "activity_lines": [ 14.408, 14.824909, 14.738286, 14.520452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.139999, "volume": 67761, "typical_volume": 68148.0, "trend": 14.492, "fair_value": 20.175833, "relative_strength": -2.587217, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.313961, "energy": 18.240797, "activity_lines": [ 14.914666, 15.007636, 14.921476, 14.627312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }