{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbe8e884-3ef8-4d77-b694-85b53067bef8", "symbol": "RAYS", "name": "Invesco Solar Energy UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.46, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.917, "architecture_energy": 59.345, "architecture_maturity": 11.283, "architecture_confidence": 66.947, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.75, "rotation_up": 16.51, "upward_expansion": 20.56, "deceleration": 44.33, "rotation_down": 71.27, "downward_expansion": 62.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 2016.633333, 2114.059091, 2248.211905, 2252.584409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2035.0, "trend_reference": 2238.808333, "distance_from_trend": -0.091034, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1794.727564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.133877, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.442446, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.06833, "excess_performance": -0.119565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091034, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044578, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.133877, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140047, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.303781, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06833, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.543882, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26520, "relative_activity": 0.727279, "balance": 1.543882, "dry_up": 0.687501, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096596, "annualized_volatility": 0.34896, "from_high_reference": -0.307234, "from_low_reference": 0.455859 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2238.808333, "fair_value_reference": 1794.727564, "structural_low": 1853.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"activity_lines": [ 2114.783333, 2243.7, 2308.87619, 2286.737097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1911.5, "volume": 28377, "typical_volume": 37071.25, "trend": 2236.655001, "fair_value": 1797.879808, "relative_strength": -13.502241, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.213264, "energy": 64.499996, "activity_lines": [ 2033.4, 2161.795455, 2272.017857, 2265.594409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2035.0, "volume": 26520, "typical_volume": 36464.7, "trend": 2238.808333, "fair_value": 1794.727564, "relative_strength": -8.442446, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.91671, "energy": 59.345346, "activity_lines": [ 2016.633333, 2114.059091, 2248.211905, 2252.584409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }