{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbefc418-1f2b-46be-82c6-c63a5cf6e13a", "symbol": "300056", "name": "Xiamen Zhongchuang Environmental Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.496, "architecture_energy": 41.784, "architecture_maturity": 24.525, "architecture_confidence": 92.479, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.21, "rotation_up": 20.55, "upward_expansion": 5.56, "deceleration": 55.58, "rotation_down": 51.16, "downward_expansion": 76.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.862, 7.882182, 8.663952, 8.941247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.37, "trend_reference": 9.18, "distance_from_trend": -0.088235, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.467308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200367, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.994598, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.083242, "excess_performance": -0.090642, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088235, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029838, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200367, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.387548, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209946, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06433, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083242, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.265616, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62687641, "relative_activity": 0.833668, "balance": 0.265616, "dry_up": 1.004625, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126551, "annualized_volatility": 0.57923, "from_high_reference": -0.500299, "from_low_reference": 0.453125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.18, "fair_value_reference": 10.467308, "structural_low": 5.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.09586, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.083812, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.93988, "worst_return": -0.165605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.262424, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.136269, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.012329, "worst_return": -0.136306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.172414, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.095092, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.034247, "worst_return": -0.217834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 65843357, "typical_volume": 76494531.8, "trend": 9.175, "fair_value": 10.459487, "relative_strength": -20.000905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.526869, "energy": 54.733888, "activity_lines": [ 7.629333, 7.855273, 8.733667, 8.993183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.37, "volume": 62687641, "typical_volume": 75194995.45, "trend": 9.18, "fair_value": 10.467308, "relative_strength": -20.994598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.496342, "energy": 41.783707, "activity_lines": [ 7.862, 7.882182, 8.663952, 8.941247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }