{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbf1d125-436e-4cf3-80d3-12e9d47cd342", "symbol": "TKO", "name": "Taseko Mines Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.247, "architecture_energy": 28.22, "architecture_maturity": 24.719, "architecture_confidence": 68.755, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.64, "rotation_up": 48.08, "upward_expansion": 45.56, "deceleration": 36.47, "rotation_down": 29.08, "downward_expansion": 17.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 552.333333, 536.181818, 530.719048, 530.453763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 620.0, "trend_reference": 534.95, "distance_from_trend": 0.158987, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 255.701923, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.424698, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 29.69139, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.087719, "excess_performance": 0.036484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.158987, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102346, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.424698, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043979, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.296914, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1276, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087719, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.922473, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43548, "relative_activity": 0.922019, "balance": 0.922473, "dry_up": 0.75636, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115378, "annualized_volatility": 0.577426, "from_high_reference": -0.067669, "from_low_reference": 1.743363 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 534.95, "fair_value_reference": 255.701923, "structural_low": 400.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.009615, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.014847, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.387097, "worst_return": -0.217391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.045248, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.477419, "worst_return": -0.271845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.223214, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.129248, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.131148, "worst_return": -0.191489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.378378, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.242633, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.785714, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169231, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121622, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013761, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117073, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099138, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.654135, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.192308, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 95.0, "volume": 11075, "typical_volume": 22569.5, "trend": 119.333333, "fair_value": 122.673077, "relative_strength": -14.979371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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"activity_lines": [ 518.666667, 520.836364, 523.207143, 525.575269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 515.0, "volume": 18764, "typical_volume": 67615.95, "trend": 518.283333, "fair_value": 244.5, "relative_strength": 16.738299, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.413392, "energy": 8.506645, "activity_lines": [ 517.0, 519.181818, 521.928571, 525.621505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 495.0, "volume": 59929, "typical_volume": 63655.1, "trend": 521.85, "fair_value": 246.967949, "relative_strength": 10.133239, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.644482, "energy": 24.663349, "activity_lines": [ 509.0, 514.090909, 519.030952, 524.119355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 540.0, "volume": 29703, "typical_volume": 56205.65, "trend": 526.016667, "fair_value": 249.724359, "relative_strength": 17.435876, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.667108, "energy": 14.972879, "activity_lines": [ 517.333333, 518.090909, 521.085714, 525.290323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 515.0, "volume": 9715, "typical_volume": 51972.65, "trend": 528.95, "fair_value": 252.352564, "relative_strength": 9.556362, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.930755, "energy": 13.701084, "activity_lines": [ 518.0, 517.818182, 520.890476, 524.57957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 620.0, "volume": 43548, "typical_volume": 47231.15, "trend": 534.95, "fair_value": 255.701923, "relative_strength": 29.69139, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.246704, "energy": 28.220351, "activity_lines": [ 552.333333, 536.181818, 530.719048, 530.453763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }