{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbf48d3e-b18e-45f4-93a7-5757b971c5cd", "symbol": "002935", "name": "Chengdu Spaceon Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.232, "architecture_energy": 75.128, "architecture_maturity": 16.738, "architecture_confidence": 82.693, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.34, "rotation_up": 10.75, "upward_expansion": 19.05, "deceleration": 34.42, "rotation_down": 72.76, "downward_expansion": 87.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.136667, 18.004137, 19.175821, 19.489795 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.92, "trend_reference": 20.124341, "distance_from_trend": -0.159227, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.011879, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056715, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.424505, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.202263, "excess_performance": -0.209663, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159227, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002005, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056715, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.372107, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161532, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.202263, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.442806, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33499527, "relative_activity": 0.840504, "balance": 0.442806, "dry_up": 0.881236, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148448, "annualized_volatility": 0.650678, "from_high_reference": -0.38917, "from_low_reference": 0.248708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.124341, "fair_value_reference": 16.011879, "structural_low": 13.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.054807, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.020587, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.280599, "worst_return": -0.058231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.097966, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.028099, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.369992, "worst_return": -0.043672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.13935, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.06918, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.311405, "worst_return": -0.016425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -23.787692, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.8571, "energy": 66.586188, "activity_lines": [ 17.833333, 19.281804, 19.862776, 20.047258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.26, "volume": 27279382, "typical_volume": 39349234.5, "trend": 20.305341, "fair_value": 16.003887, "relative_strength": -18.016972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.365687, "energy": 77.156249, "activity_lines": [ 16.514, 18.438041, 19.430679, 19.708204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.92, "volume": 33499527, "typical_volume": 39856465.6, "trend": 20.124341, "fair_value": 16.011879, "relative_strength": -13.424505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.232389, "energy": 75.128094, "activity_lines": [ 16.136667, 18.004137, 19.175821, 19.489795 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }