{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbf5ad78-63a2-406c-97da-1ed7b65210c4", "symbol": "600771", "name": "GuangYuYuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.149, "architecture_energy": 23.295, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.666, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.22, "rotation_up": 27.4, "upward_expansion": 20.42, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 25.16, "downward_expansion": 56.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.481333, 14.254545, 14.719333, 15.317978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.29, "trend_reference": 16.140333, "distance_from_trend": -0.11464, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.807372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.313224, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.313495, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.204786, "excess_performance": -0.161582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11464, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.313224, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042903, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183135, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032225, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204786, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.096213, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38442861, "relative_activity": 1.234695, "balance": 1.096213, "dry_up": 1.779687, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074931, "annualized_volatility": 0.29555, "from_high_reference": -0.382988, "from_low_reference": 0.126084 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.140333, "fair_value_reference": 20.807372, "structural_low": 12.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.00109, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.022108, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.180896, "worst_return": -0.17376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.067145, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.075055, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.272674, "worst_return": -0.310272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013746, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.106442, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.312542, "worst_return": -0.373796, "sufficient": true 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"down", "direction": -66.037883, "energy": 71.491746, "activity_lines": [ 13.792, 14.147273, 15.150619, 15.808645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.04, "volume": 86216923, "typical_volume": 27886067.85, "trend": 16.517333, "fair_value": 21.148846, "relative_strength": -12.493105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.675763, "energy": 48.359195, "activity_lines": [ 14.228, 14.223273, 15.070143, 15.706215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.94, "volume": 56261380, "typical_volume": 29377195.85, "trend": 16.377, "fair_value": 21.029936, "relative_strength": -19.196466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.910906, "energy": 39.013763, "activity_lines": [ 14.234667, 14.126545, 14.897905, 15.539935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.91, "volume": 40724734, "typical_volume": 30479985.6, "trend": 16.263333, "fair_value": 20.91641, "relative_strength": -13.275462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.740916, "energy": 26.078195, "activity_lines": [ 14.534667, 14.244545, 14.83319, 15.44529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.29, "volume": 38442861, "typical_volume": 31135513.7, "trend": 16.140333, "fair_value": 20.807372, "relative_strength": -18.313495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.148538, "energy": 23.294749, "activity_lines": [ 14.481333, 14.254545, 14.719333, 15.317978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }