{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbf6db10-58a3-4b46-9032-dd1a639129db", "symbol": "6317", "name": "Kitagawa Corporation", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-28", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.732, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.7, "architecture_energy": 74.217, "architecture_maturity": 8.369, "architecture_confidence": 68.213, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.86, "rotation_up": 73.49, "upward_expansion": 90.48, "deceleration": 44.7, "rotation_down": 11.25, "downward_expansion": 19.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 1824.866667, 1771.418182, 1725.704762, 1702.145352 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1824.0, "trend_reference": 1689.491988, "distance_from_trend": 0.079614, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1382.6497, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319206, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.15241, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.00341, "excess_performance": -0.131791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079614, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00789, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319206, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047284, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081524, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118258, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00341, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.718841, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110600, "relative_activity": 1.084154, "balance": 1.718841, "dry_up": 1.380434, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050607, "annualized_volatility": 0.28867, "from_high_reference": -0.05, "from_low_reference": 0.253457 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1689.491988, "fair_value_reference": 1382.6497, "structural_low": 1516.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.017964, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.006923, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.116909, "worst_return": -0.138365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041786, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04394, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.171407, "worst_return": -0.040741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072028, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.081118, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.360342, "worst_return": -0.096205, "sufficient": false }, { 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1729.0, "volume": 122400, "typical_volume": 112370.0, "trend": 1678.938033, "fair_value": 1370.282521, "relative_strength": -12.922615, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.555925, "energy": 10.93442, "activity_lines": [ 1687.466667, 1685.436364, 1670.542857, 1667.677137 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 1875.0, "volume": 176200, "typical_volume": 104505.0, "trend": 1681.613074, "fair_value": 1374.670647, "relative_strength": -9.523177, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.729729, "energy": 50.189505, "activity_lines": [ 1749.8, 1721.018182, 1691.742857, 1680.326296 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 1881.0, "volume": 154100, "typical_volume": 102400.0, "trend": 1685.191561, "fair_value": 1379.153762, "relative_strength": -5.162425, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.14973, "energy": 74.701101, "activity_lines": [ 1804.8, 1754.127273, 1712.095238, 1693.189968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 1824.0, "volume": 110600, "typical_volume": 102015.0, "trend": 1689.491988, "fair_value": 1382.6497, "relative_strength": -8.15241, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.699659, "energy": 74.217337, "activity_lines": [ 1824.866667, 1771.418182, 1725.704762, 1702.145352 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }