{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc052dc9-38ef-4d25-bb29-8a721db190d6", "symbol": "603900", "name": "Leysen Jewellery Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.476, "architecture_energy": 57.971, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.534, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 25.62, "upward_expansion": 10.25, "deceleration": 60.12, "rotation_down": 52.6, "downward_expansion": 81.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.654667, 5.731455, 6.229143, 6.673419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.97, "trend_reference": 7.327333, "distance_from_trend": -0.185242, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.086863, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.157596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.522372, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.355987, "excess_performance": -0.312783, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185242, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122874, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.157596, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.275704, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.285224, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047046, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.355987, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.359517, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58973284, "relative_activity": 1.909013, "balance": 0.359517, "dry_up": 1.516984, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090839, "annualized_volatility": 0.334647, "from_high_reference": -0.535621, "from_low_reference": 0.175197 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.327333, "fair_value_reference": 7.086863, "structural_low": 5.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.017083, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003228, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.544419, "worst_return": -0.156643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.017252, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.024415, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.504329, "worst_return": -0.210399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029872, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.021685, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.318459, "worst_return": -0.285558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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7.647, "fair_value": 7.09949, "relative_strength": -33.807654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.279259, "energy": 80.950856, "activity_lines": [ 5.710667, 6.002909, 6.585381, 7.042817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.2, "volume": 44240660, "typical_volume": 29480634.35, "trend": 7.518333, "fair_value": 7.093499, "relative_strength": -37.032707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.303918, "energy": 70.261081, "activity_lines": [ 5.517333, 5.801091, 6.413524, 6.884946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.68, "volume": 33411254, "typical_volume": 29473251.55, "trend": 7.410333, "fair_value": 7.089903, "relative_strength": -30.80309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.689469, "energy": 65.108201, "activity_lines": [ 5.539333, 5.726545, 6.302, 6.766344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.97, "volume": 58973284, "typical_volume": 30892035.75, "trend": 7.327333, "fair_value": 7.086863, "relative_strength": -28.522372, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.475702, "energy": 57.970918, "activity_lines": [ 5.654667, 5.731455, 6.229143, 6.673419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }