{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc06a266-f1f6-44a6-9979-dca8574af8ce", "symbol": "XPCM11", "name": "XP Corporate Maca\u00e9 Fundo de Investimento Imobili\u00e1rio - FII", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 62.716, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.416, "architecture_energy": 43.634, "architecture_maturity": 47.224, "architecture_confidence": 94.885, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.67, "rotation_up": 17.84, "upward_expansion": 7.94, "deceleration": 41.78, "rotation_down": 53.41, "downward_expansion": 81.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.024667, 8.063585, 8.123348, 8.194579 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.91, "trend_reference": 8.24212, "distance_from_trend": -0.040295, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.413296, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059821, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.463783, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.023457, "excess_performance": 0.033592, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040295, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000955, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059821, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094638, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045206, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023457, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.395347, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17355, "relative_activity": 1.888558, "balance": 0.395347, "dry_up": 0.907199, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039012, "annualized_volatility": 0.333505, "from_high_reference": -0.280909, "from_low_reference": 0.095568 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.24212, "fair_value_reference": 8.413296, "structural_low": 7.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.009379, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.008989, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.046588, "worst_return": -0.268735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013112, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018531, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.200577, "worst_return": -0.489021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.075846, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.132858, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.184704, "worst_return": -0.546062, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-01-27", "end": "2023-02-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2023-03-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029959, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-24", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038341, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063163, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.450768, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 13398.15, "trend": 8.244787, "fair_value": 8.506127, "relative_strength": -8.17829, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.673461, "energy": 28.67557, "activity_lines": [ 8.126, 8.141963, 8.194971, 8.241763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.05, "volume": 4100, "typical_volume": 11985.6, "trend": 8.24312, "fair_value": 8.474503, "relative_strength": -9.32025, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.205219, "energy": 28.3689, "activity_lines": [ 8.098667, 8.121353, 8.174621, 8.229196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.04, "volume": 3316, "typical_volume": 10935.75, "trend": 8.243453, "fair_value": 8.44363, "relative_strength": -11.087331, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.815303, "energy": 25.586856, "activity_lines": [ 8.084667, 8.102378, 8.155223, 8.216092 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.91, "volume": 17355, "typical_volume": 9189.55, "trend": 8.24212, "fair_value": 8.413296, "relative_strength": -9.463783, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.415545, "energy": 43.633928, "activity_lines": [ 8.024667, 8.063585, 8.123348, 8.194579 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }