{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc08c670-d702-47e1-9a93-2a4a9db5122b", "symbol": "9009", "name": "Bosera Global Exchange Traded Funds Series Open-ended Fund Company - Bosera Hashkey Ether ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.744, "architecture_energy": 30.596, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.756, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.97, "rotation_up": 33.63, "upward_expansion": 21.82, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 23.03, "downward_expansion": 58.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.181933, 0.1748, 0.182529, 0.18952 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.184, "trend_reference": 0.203, "distance_from_trend": -0.093596, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.316178, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.860201, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.889063, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010753, "excess_performance": 0.022829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093596, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177138, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.860201, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.318891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036871, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010753, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.582072, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 340000, "relative_activity": 0.316435, "balance": 2.582072, "dry_up": 0.435098, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063963, "annualized_volatility": 0.386262, "from_high_reference": -0.608511, "from_low_reference": 0.202614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.203, "fair_value_reference": 1.316178, "structural_low": 0.153, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.075893, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.061572, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.114428, "worst_return": -0.258427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.264662, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.206299, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.205, "worst_return": -0.324324, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.462838, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.349375, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.462838, "worst_return": -0.462838, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.743746, "energy": 30.596228, "activity_lines": [ 0.181933, 0.1748, 0.182529, 0.18952 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }