{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc0a6168-9612-4158-8d2f-b3e30eeaaf03", "symbol": "FINSW", "name": "Amundi MSCI World Financials UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.909, "architecture_energy": 91.487, "architecture_maturity": 35.512, "architecture_confidence": 71.412, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.35, "rotation_up": 84.91, "upward_expansion": 99.24, "deceleration": 39.37, "rotation_down": 10.26, "downward_expansion": 21.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 408.796002, 402.00709, 387.836282, 378.183437 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 412.309998, "trend_reference": 368.495996, "distance_from_trend": 0.1189, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 306.115515, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.34691, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.622852, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.137941, "excess_performance": -0.032951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.1189, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037825, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.34691, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118534, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016229, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070904, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137941, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.82566, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 750, "relative_activity": 0.721813, "balance": 7.82566, "dry_up": 1.976565, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018339, "annualized_volatility": 0.122048, "from_high_reference": -0.012289, "from_low_reference": 0.252651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 368.495996, "fair_value_reference": 306.115515, "structural_low": 332.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.03057, "positive_rate": 0.589744, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.004725, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.1011, "worst_return": -0.12855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.036417, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.003725, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.12435, "worst_return": -0.098107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.097228, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.006874, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.198456, "worst_return": -0.050444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.262533, "energy": 95.871998, "activity_lines": [ 392.809992, 383.65672, 372.162041, 366.900661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 405.089996, "volume": 656, "typical_volume": 2039.05, "trend": 364.110996, "fair_value": 302.455002, "relative_strength": -0.171524, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.482922, "energy": 96.12066, "activity_lines": [ 398.205326, 388.861448, 376.151041, 369.635306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 408.170013, "volume": 5952, "typical_volume": 1772.85, "trend": 365.621996, "fair_value": 303.650323, "relative_strength": 0.825034, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.799828, "energy": 95.255011, "activity_lines": [ 402.756667, 393.771997, 380.199519, 372.477824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 408.910004, "volume": 857, "typical_volume": 1108.05, "trend": 367.160997, "fair_value": 304.86872, "relative_strength": 0.376283, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.567502, "energy": 92.52384, "activity_lines": [ 405.94467, 397.949635, 384.014663, 375.270598 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 412.309998, "volume": 750, "typical_volume": 1039.05, "trend": 368.495996, "fair_value": 306.115515, "relative_strength": -1.622852, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.909219, "energy": 91.487042, "activity_lines": [ 408.796002, 402.00709, 387.836282, 378.183437 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }