{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc0b13dd-0d97-40b5-8d9c-692f14af49a3", "symbol": "QGEN", "name": "Qiagen NV", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 68.446, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 14.113, "architecture_energy": 46.69, "architecture_maturity": 5.179, "architecture_confidence": 40.576, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.0, "rotation_up": 54.93, "upward_expansion": 51.04, "deceleration": 16.54, "rotation_down": 14.66, "downward_expansion": 52.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.668, 40.695747, 38.973273, 39.591696 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 42.3, "trend_reference": 41.685538, "distance_from_trend": 0.01474, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.424141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.025887, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.507465, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.169774, "excess_performance": -0.295399, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01474, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049415, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.025887, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.223634, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145075, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.218745, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169774, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.364833, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15522903, "relative_activity": 1.360906, "balance": 2.364833, "dry_up": 1.072718, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055461, "annualized_volatility": 0.338589, "from_high_reference": -0.268356, "from_low_reference": 0.300338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.685538, "fair_value_reference": 43.424141, "structural_low": 32.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.006943, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.016501, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.112009, "worst_return": -0.126753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.038746, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.055493, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188957, "worst_return": -0.309421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.049465, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.070394, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119637, "worst_return": -0.256203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 24728635, "typical_volume": 11095339.75, "trend": 42.315791, "fair_value": 43.5343, "relative_strength": -16.520509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.997847, "energy": 19.227184, "activity_lines": [ 39.576663, 38.082739, 37.803343, 39.731089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.15, "volume": 13155072, "typical_volume": 11369634.45, "trend": 42.160339, "fair_value": 43.498691, "relative_strength": -15.379361, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.051818, "energy": 24.884454, "activity_lines": [ 40.383015, 38.877536, 38.019742, 39.655877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.37, "volume": 10891438, "typical_volume": 11340703.75, "trend": 42.019257, "fair_value": 43.461346, "relative_strength": -13.750015, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.082633, "energy": 28.350606, "activity_lines": [ 40.9679, 39.564879, 38.298284, 39.604887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.4, "volume": 9373578, "typical_volume": 11123308.15, "trend": 41.885205, "fair_value": 43.433824, "relative_strength": -13.955213, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.697589, "energy": 32.175561, "activity_lines": [ 41.246052, 40.105131, 38.594826, 39.564935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.3, "volume": 15522903, "typical_volume": 11406300.2, "trend": 41.685538, "fair_value": 43.424141, "relative_strength": -14.507465, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.113272, "energy": 46.689903, "activity_lines": [ 41.668, 40.695747, 38.973273, 39.591696 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }