{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc0e5b86-229f-4403-9bff-86fc2ec23f6c", "symbol": "VSTM", "name": "Verastem Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 94.763, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.186, "architecture_energy": 62.344, "architecture_maturity": 23.081, "architecture_confidence": 70.837, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.23, "rotation_up": 76.49, "upward_expansion": 55.86, "deceleration": 16.65, "rotation_down": 14.07, "downward_expansion": 26.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.176, 5.550545, 5.153667, 5.231505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.74, "trend_reference": 5.442, "distance_from_trend": 0.238515, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.74984, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.001458, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.057813, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.010495, "excess_performance": -0.176959, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.238515, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183598, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.001458, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.314071, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160578, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.274864, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010495, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.445604, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11143318, "relative_activity": 0.941134, "balance": 1.445604, "dry_up": 0.937647, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123597, "annualized_volatility": 0.806195, "from_high_reference": -0.400622, "from_low_reference": 0.965015 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.442, "fair_value_reference": 6.74984, "structural_low": 3.43, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069074, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017089, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.279018, "worst_return": -0.398308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028207, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.043295, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.496241, "worst_return": -0.384462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.257692, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.032103, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.902256, "worst_return": -0.694268, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009772, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.347181, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059459, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.24154, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.250965, 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4.697818, 4.829143, 5.102688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.05, "volume": 11133327, "typical_volume": 11921359.55, "trend": 5.524667, "fair_value": 6.803878, "relative_strength": -21.067407, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.550049, "energy": 36.775429, "activity_lines": [ 5.582667, 4.985818, 4.922619, 5.132258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.8, "volume": 9078339, "typical_volume": 11989396.25, "trend": 5.477, "fair_value": 6.769519, "relative_strength": -24.406893, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.472369, "energy": 37.185998, "activity_lines": [ 5.79, 5.196909, 4.993857, 5.150022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.74, "volume": 11143318, "typical_volume": 11840310.25, "trend": 5.442, "fair_value": 6.74984, "relative_strength": -16.057813, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.185875, "energy": 62.343639, "activity_lines": [ 6.176, 5.550545, 5.153667, 5.231505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }