{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc1130a2-b0b2-40f8-a31a-e50d8fd6104d", "symbol": "KSM-F31", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF(!)(4D) IBOVESPA", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.574, "architecture_energy": 67.334, "architecture_maturity": 91.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.191, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.37, "rotation_up": 29.95, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 50.67, "downward_expansion": 76.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.258667, 233.393818, 2840.848857, 4541.229806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 87.21, "trend_reference": 6392.145333, "distance_from_trend": -0.986357, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7281.784359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988024, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.871335, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.990395, "excess_performance": -1.019296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.986357, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269886, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988024, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.17989, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988713, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.858374, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.990395, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.282895, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1572, "relative_activity": 0.409604, "balance": 0.282895, "dry_up": 0.443282, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.53055, "annualized_volatility": 6.368807, "from_high_reference": -0.991408, "from_low_reference": 0.074015 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6392.145333, "fair_value_reference": 7281.784359, "structural_low": 81.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.001481, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012167, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.21228, "worst_return": -0.08928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011248, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012743, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.347733, "worst_return": -0.108866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.04, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.096746, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.205788, "worst_return": -0.114713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 90.47, "volume": 1549, "typical_volume": 3861.6, "trend": 6657.638333, "fair_value": 7332.347115, "relative_strength": -98.852522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.619558, "energy": 67.51879, "activity_lines": [ 88.176, 527.449273, 3356.37719, 4965.128409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.21, "volume": 1572, "typical_volume": 3837.85, "trend": 6392.145333, "fair_value": 7281.784359, "relative_strength": -98.871335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.573688, "energy": 67.333856, "activity_lines": [ 88.258667, 233.393818, 2840.848857, 4541.229806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }