{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc14ba82-4c7b-40b6-a5b4-4e5716133926", "symbol": "REM", "name": "iShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.105, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 10.532, "architecture_energy": 6.482, "architecture_maturity": 32.069, "architecture_confidence": 48.515, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.64, "rotation_up": 37.09, "upward_expansion": 35.83, "deceleration": 56.04, "rotation_down": 32.35, "downward_expansion": 22.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.826667, 21.843877, 21.788513, 21.715636 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.99, "trend_reference": 21.764744, "distance_from_trend": 0.01035, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.748481, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113503, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.716673, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003552, "excess_performance": -0.129177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01035, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006231, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113503, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033931, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032669, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003552, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.964243, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2702913, "relative_activity": 1.148173, "balance": 0.964243, "dry_up": 1.198599, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032051, "annualized_volatility": 0.161632, "from_high_reference": -0.057414, "from_low_reference": 0.103116 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.764744, "fair_value_reference": 19.748481, "structural_low": 19.942542, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.028965, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.016669, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.101747, "worst_return": -0.222172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004887, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006498, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.139167, "worst_return": -0.191349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000698, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.032328, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088587, "worst_return": -0.10634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.076961, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.106552, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.136651, "worst_return": -0.221201, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036193, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061547, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035844, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029609, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035327, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038199, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060931, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04326, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 21.94482, 21.73298, 21.692936, 21.700939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.29, "volume": 2494683, "typical_volume": 2656138.35, "trend": 21.790792, "fair_value": 19.68635, "relative_strength": -4.360943, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.249469, "energy": 41.385486, "activity_lines": [ 22.104, 21.847462, 21.762214, 21.734728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.57, "volume": 3755869, "typical_volume": 2633160.2, "trend": 21.789052, "fair_value": 19.703389, "relative_strength": -6.715223, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.21138, "energy": 29.288282, "activity_lines": [ 21.968, 21.830558, 21.761265, 21.720483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.5, "volume": 2333018, "typical_volume": 2508238.3, "trend": 21.776088, "fair_value": 19.723731, "relative_strength": -7.822649, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.149351, "energy": 7.855779, "activity_lines": [ 21.800667, 21.795147, 21.753205, 21.701835 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.99, "volume": 2702913, "typical_volume": 2354099.25, "trend": 21.764744, "fair_value": 19.748481, "relative_strength": -8.716673, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.532074, "energy": 6.4815, "activity_lines": [ 21.826667, 21.843877, 21.788513, 21.715636 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }