{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc14db28-b20d-4ef6-b377-a0bf9a97d663", "symbol": "VRP", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II VAR RATE PFD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.895, "architecture_energy": 15.886, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.023, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.23, "rotation_up": 32.82, "upward_expansion": 57.72, "deceleration": 83.36, "rotation_down": 26.79, "downward_expansion": 19.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.217349, 24.23477, 24.220911, 24.174449 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.27, "trend_reference": 24.126073, "distance_from_trend": 0.005966, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.194541, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093512, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.700958, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007647, "excess_performance": -0.117977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005966, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006592, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.093512, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020841, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09701, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007212, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007647, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.860262, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4805074, "relative_activity": 1.443441, "balance": 0.860262, "dry_up": 0.922183, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007903, "annualized_volatility": 0.037489, "from_high_reference": -0.007439, "from_low_reference": 0.043987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.126073, "fair_value_reference": 22.194541, "structural_low": 23.534043, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.004504, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.008963, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.038299, "worst_return": -0.049656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.013685, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.038128, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.073027, "worst_return": -0.024445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038055, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.060296, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.091175, "worst_return": 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"typical_volume": 3232940.15, "trend": 24.107511, "fair_value": 22.128187, "relative_strength": -6.4561, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.070796, "energy": 22.978361, "activity_lines": [ 24.243387, 24.249165, 24.207924, 24.162392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.14, "volume": 1929540, "typical_volume": 3191212.95, "trend": 24.115606, "fair_value": 22.161082, "relative_strength": -7.313943, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.004549, "energy": 13.203639, "activity_lines": [ 24.206025, 24.229873, 24.208847, 24.164488 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.27, "volume": 4805074, "typical_volume": 3328903.1, "trend": 24.126073, "fair_value": 22.194541, "relative_strength": -9.700958, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.894786, "energy": 15.886013, "activity_lines": [ 24.217349, 24.23477, 24.220911, 24.174449 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }