{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc154823-7500-41e4-9d64-5701c6b64c92", "symbol": "5302", "name": "Syntek Semiconductor Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 65.934, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.168, "architecture_energy": 37.618, "architecture_maturity": 9.511, "architecture_confidence": 70.84, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.4, "rotation_up": 11.61, "upward_expansion": 5.14, "deceleration": 46.23, "rotation_down": 65.99, "downward_expansion": 76.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.486667, 11.224545, 11.325476, 11.345054 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.9, "trend_reference": 11.39, "distance_from_trend": -0.04302, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.373077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050797, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.852072, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.009091, "excess_performance": -0.450463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04302, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076865, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050797, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053647, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248521, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006781, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009091, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.470096, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4419689, "relative_activity": 0.759824, "balance": 1.470096, "dry_up": 0.558944, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152929, "annualized_volatility": 0.529501, "from_high_reference": -0.31875, "from_low_reference": 0.392082 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.39, "fair_value_reference": 10.373077, "structural_low": 9.55, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.001323, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027311, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.072345, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.023063, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224215, "worst_return": -0.109589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.06131, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.133956, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.277713, "worst_return": -0.243151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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11.961818, 11.602619, 11.46286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.25, "volume": 15931197, "typical_volume": 5992343.55, "trend": 11.227, "fair_value": 10.364103, "relative_strength": -9.851402, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.729135, "energy": 66.698749, "activity_lines": [ 13.12, 12.274545, 11.76881, 11.603161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.0, "volume": 6828425, "typical_volume": 6014843.6, "trend": 11.293333, "fair_value": 10.366667, "relative_strength": -20.217175, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.574369, "energy": 43.211891, "activity_lines": [ 12.533333, 12.139091, 11.711905, 11.588516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.6, "volume": 3759600, "typical_volume": 5939087.25, "trend": 11.347, "fair_value": 10.368269, "relative_strength": -24.562103, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.230956, "energy": 13.799028, "activity_lines": [ 11.833333, 11.945455, 11.624524, 11.543785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.0, "volume": 2924297, "typical_volume": 5939573.1, "trend": 11.38, "fair_value": 10.366987, "relative_strength": -27.643448, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.957764, "energy": 16.196696, "activity_lines": [ 11.063333, 11.636364, 11.485238, 11.456882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.15, "volume": 1901300, "typical_volume": 5702771.5, "trend": 11.403333, "fair_value": 10.367628, "relative_strength": -28.133396, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.601651, "energy": 40.73139, "activity_lines": [ 10.52, 11.356364, 11.365714, 11.377527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.9, "volume": 4419689, "typical_volume": 5816723.6, "trend": 11.39, "fair_value": 10.373077, "relative_strength": -24.852072, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.167636, "energy": 37.617549, "activity_lines": [ 10.486667, 11.224545, 11.325476, 11.345054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }