{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc236c2e-773c-4776-9947-6c2db3226a39", "symbol": "SLNH", "name": "Soluna Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.38, "architecture_energy": 22.198, "architecture_maturity": 30.652, "architecture_confidence": 65.569, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.83, "rotation_up": 17.44, "upward_expansion": 17.1, "deceleration": 56.75, "rotation_down": 52.82, "downward_expansion": 44.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.202, 1.261091, 1.373727, 1.295301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.17, "trend_reference": 1.219923, "distance_from_trend": -0.040923, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.436948, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.519891, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.447762, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.147059, "excess_performance": -0.040395, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040923, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094961, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.519891, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176777, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.294478, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.519938, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.147059, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.760005, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45003650, "relative_activity": 0.522823, "balance": 0.760005, "dry_up": 0.676132, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.348448, "annualized_volatility": 1.179417, "from_high_reference": -0.772369, "from_low_reference": 1.819277 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.219923, "fair_value_reference": 2.436948, "structural_low": 0.5926, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.131603, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.054862, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.073482, "worst_return": -0.343023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.093305, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.073886, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.309917, "worst_return": -0.491637, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.274696, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.261652, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.376033, "worst_return": -0.651515, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.629673, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.652083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.371901, "worst_return": -0.887446, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.331169, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.244838, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.324937, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.687478, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.582781, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.138605, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.378269, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.450909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.484503, "active": false 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"direction": 23.501325, "energy": 14.40264, "activity_lines": [ 1.351333, 1.464909, 1.404335, 1.308593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.13, "volume": 59745755, "typical_volume": 79593143.15, "trend": 1.24759, "fair_value": 2.56081, "relative_strength": -27.507367, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.166611, "energy": 12.352216, "activity_lines": [ 1.256, 1.381636, 1.393113, 1.300233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.26, "volume": 68248404, "typical_volume": 82177735.15, "trend": 1.24259, "fair_value": 2.519208, "relative_strength": -18.477865, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.554991, "energy": 15.572957, "activity_lines": [ 1.227333, 1.334727, 1.39303, 1.301033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.22, "volume": 59803312, "typical_volume": 84361558.4, "trend": 1.236257, "fair_value": 2.478791, "relative_strength": -22.157602, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.226317, "energy": 15.095017, "activity_lines": [ 1.216, 1.298, 1.386801, 1.299576 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.17, "volume": 45003650, "typical_volume": 86078228.6, "trend": 1.219923, "fair_value": 2.436948, "relative_strength": -29.447762, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.380436, "energy": 22.198133, "activity_lines": [ 1.202, 1.261091, 1.373727, 1.295301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }