{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc249ac1-6f68-4e1d-a8b8-7088e045e2db", "symbol": "3086", "name": "Wayi International Digital Entertainment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 48.647, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.386, "architecture_energy": 55.961, "architecture_maturity": 14.175, "architecture_confidence": 80.662, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.58, "rotation_up": 15.1, "upward_expansion": 26.74, "deceleration": 49.5, "rotation_down": 72.31, "downward_expansion": 58.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.416667, 29.327273, 32.042857, 31.862581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 26.5, "trend_reference": 30.361667, "distance_from_trend": -0.127189, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.166475, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.543707, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.313689, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.177778, "excess_performance": -0.263594, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127189, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11419, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.543707, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.97789, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.479066, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.177778, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.564073, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 645254, "relative_activity": 0.190396, "balance": 0.564073, "dry_up": 0.270978, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167344, "annualized_volatility": 0.72862, "from_high_reference": -0.442105, "from_low_reference": 0.992481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.361667, "fair_value_reference": 17.166475, "structural_low": 21.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021407, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.009634, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.078818, "worst_return": -0.004011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.080247, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.050675, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102941, "worst_return": -0.107389, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.067761, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005305, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.037037, "worst_return": -0.120248, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.247761, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133803, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.177195, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010601, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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34.480001, 35.118182, 34.667619, 32.223549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.700001, "volume": 728030, "typical_volume": 5260174.6, "trend": 29.268333, "fair_value": 16.46424, "relative_strength": -6.106628, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.412086, "energy": 12.834438, "activity_lines": [ 33.300001, 34.332728, 34.595476, 32.401291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.65, "volume": 2538504, "typical_volume": 5095799.8, "trend": 29.573333, "fair_value": 16.618045, "relative_strength": -3.614637, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.360444, "energy": 12.570753, "activity_lines": [ 32.110001, 33.481819, 34.380476, 32.49043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.950001, "volume": 960016, "typical_volume": 4598611.1, "trend": 29.813333, "fair_value": 16.761885, "relative_strength": -11.030307, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.752395, "energy": 17.465098, "activity_lines": [ 30.796668, 32.490001, 33.967143, 32.450215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.200001, "volume": 1372100, "typical_volume": 4415465.1, "trend": 29.978334, "fair_value": 16.898075, "relative_strength": -15.33913, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.324723, "energy": 42.769333, "activity_lines": [ 29.370001, 31.341819, 33.361429, 32.281613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.15, "volume": 696015, "typical_volume": 3663305.35, "trend": 30.166667, "fair_value": 17.033737, "relative_strength": -17.601506, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.414378, "energy": 52.425514, "activity_lines": [ 28.293334, 30.36091, 32.727143, 32.09914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 26.5, "volume": 645254, "typical_volume": 3389010.05, "trend": 30.361667, "fair_value": 17.166475, "relative_strength": -22.313689, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.38587, "energy": 55.960571, "activity_lines": [ 27.416667, 29.327273, 32.042857, 31.862581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }