{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc27bfac-3f14-44fb-a8d5-e64b06b66c6c", "symbol": "6844", "name": "Norbel Baby Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.126, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.62, "architecture_energy": 6.672, "architecture_maturity": 26.051, "architecture_confidence": 42.649, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.64, "rotation_up": 24.82, "upward_expansion": 22.02, "deceleration": 60.74, "rotation_down": 39.98, "downward_expansion": 31.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.146667, 61.467162, 61.332837, 61.142011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 61.400002, "trend_reference": 61.315639, "distance_from_trend": 0.001376, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 117.146153, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.475868, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.574177, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.039648, "excess_performance": -0.48102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001376, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054435, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.475868, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04426, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.385742, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097191, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039648, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.765576, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79000, "relative_activity": 0.680122, "balance": 0.765576, "dry_up": 1.043558, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033743, "annualized_volatility": 0.148201, "from_high_reference": -0.34139, "from_low_reference": 0.068627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.315639, "fair_value_reference": 117.146153, "structural_low": 57.456885, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.02445, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.017755, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.009086, "worst_return": -0.039683, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.022005, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065518, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.022005, "worst_return": -0.022005, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.122249, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.357851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.122249, "worst_return": -0.122249, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-31", "close": 60.799999, "volume": 104340, "typical_volume": 109663.0, "trend": 61.908942, "fair_value": 118.61829, "relative_strength": -38.06893, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.143781, "energy": 9.410389, "activity_lines": [ 61.679999, 61.693394, 61.326756, 61.242812 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.5, "volume": 115520, "typical_volume": 114271.2, "trend": 61.553478, "fair_value": 117.865596, "relative_strength": -38.61016, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.499061, "energy": 15.344398, "activity_lines": [ 61.213332, 61.496252, 61.287703, 61.151913 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 61.400002, "volume": 79000, "typical_volume": 116155.55, "trend": 61.315639, "fair_value": 117.146153, "relative_strength": -38.574177, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.619771, "energy": 6.671656, "activity_lines": [ 61.146667, 61.467162, 61.332837, 61.142011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }