{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc2854b7-556d-4e0e-b5be-9b82868b0ab8", "symbol": "PPP", "name": "Premier Products Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.781, "architecture_energy": 53.575, "architecture_maturity": 14.977, "architecture_confidence": 90.49, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.24, "rotation_up": 12.19, "upward_expansion": 10.33, "deceleration": 40.52, "rotation_down": 66.29, "downward_expansion": 86.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.716, 0.739636, 0.780095, 0.790731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.72, "trend_reference": 0.811, "distance_from_trend": -0.112207, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.35641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.469187, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.78035, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191011, "excess_performance": -0.383336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112207, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077011, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.469187, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006311, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.337803, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009289, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191011, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.362117, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73700, "relative_activity": 0.353401, "balance": 0.362117, "dry_up": 0.781726, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129274, "annualized_volatility": 0.331469, "from_high_reference": -0.446154, "from_low_reference": 0.074627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.811, "fair_value_reference": 1.35641, "structural_low": 0.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.011494, "positive_rate": 0.324324, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.01097, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.321212, "worst_return": -0.195312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.038158, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.034196, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.232323, "worst_return": -0.32716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.081866, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.056909, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.13369, "worst_return": -0.343373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.320988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08871, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065421, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024096, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064935, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.85, "volume": 353800, "typical_volume": 186755.0, "trend": 1.986, "fair_value": 2.058462, "relative_strength": -5.32118, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.824485, 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0.792182, 0.80419, 0.812581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.72, "volume": 148700, "typical_volume": 219835.0, "trend": 0.826667, "fair_value": 1.371154, "relative_strength": -36.647201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.633806, "energy": 59.178074, "activity_lines": [ 0.732667, 0.773636, 0.796238, 0.805247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7, "volume": 197800, "typical_volume": 225520.0, "trend": 0.818333, "fair_value": 1.363782, "relative_strength": -36.824222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.203828, "energy": 59.283147, "activity_lines": [ 0.718667, 0.753273, 0.787, 0.797075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.72, "volume": 73700, "typical_volume": 208545.0, "trend": 0.811, "fair_value": 1.35641, "relative_strength": -33.78035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.781336, "energy": 53.574664, "activity_lines": [ 0.716, 0.739636, 0.780095, 0.790731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }