{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc37633a-f32b-4cda-b64a-863eb0c31397", "symbol": "688379", "name": "Hangzhou Huaguang Advanced Welding Materials Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.345, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.748, "architecture_energy": 59.635, "architecture_maturity": 13.902, "architecture_confidence": 83.588, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.44, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 26.82, "deceleration": 51.15, "rotation_down": 71.57, "downward_expansion": 54.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.498666, 59.53847, 65.101813, 63.161647 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 51.419998, "trend_reference": 60.40685, "distance_from_trend": -0.148772, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.485375, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.582866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.369265, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.034366, "excess_performance": 0.008838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100173, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.582866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.167515, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.585286, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034366, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.649075, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16293525, "relative_activity": 0.918473, "balance": 0.649075, "dry_up": 0.976933, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.216352, "annualized_volatility": 0.800527, "from_high_reference": -0.470021, "from_low_reference": 0.270201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.40685, "fair_value_reference": 32.485375, "structural_low": 40.880001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0291, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000798, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.47444, "worst_return": -0.168937, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.309103, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.266347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.769, "worst_return": -0.150794, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.267407, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.285462, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.267407, "worst_return": -0.267407, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -10.745387, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.528326, "energy": 38.811246, "activity_lines": [ 58.527601, 67.736852, 68.277151, 64.863369 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.700001, "volume": 17264063, "typical_volume": 17460358.95, "trend": 60.528183, "fair_value": 32.279229, "relative_strength": -19.763782, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.260185, "energy": 48.428329, "activity_lines": [ 51.46516, 62.645843, 66.305982, 63.749271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.419998, "volume": 16293525, "typical_volume": 17739791.9, "trend": 60.40685, "fair_value": 32.485375, "relative_strength": -8.369265, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.747844, "energy": 59.634852, "activity_lines": [ 49.498666, 59.53847, 65.101813, 63.161647 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }