{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc3a2e04-a74f-4af2-95be-6c765dcc2cb9", "symbol": "FCA", "name": "FIRST TRUST CHINA ALPHADEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.385, "architecture_energy": 50.623, "architecture_maturity": 40.127, "architecture_confidence": 91.562, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.88, "rotation_up": 24.64, "upward_expansion": 8.31, "deceleration": 59.04, "rotation_down": 50.36, "downward_expansion": 79.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.19954, 27.332537, 28.715786, 29.652043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.725, "trend_reference": 30.660425, "distance_from_trend": -0.09574, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.610547, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.226198, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.727038, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.146398, "excess_performance": -0.333851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09574, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013353, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.226198, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301299, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18727, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16163, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146398, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.082294, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67816, "relative_activity": 0.263966, "balance": 0.082294, "dry_up": 0.189861, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058063, "annualized_volatility": 0.21279, "from_high_reference": -0.19777, "from_low_reference": 0.074196 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.660425, "fair_value_reference": 22.610547, "structural_low": 25.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.013398, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": 0.017209, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.166487, "worst_return": -0.09897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.018578, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.024857, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.128169, "worst_return": -0.113088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025257, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03713, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.204415, "worst_return": -0.129825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -80.797197, "energy": 91.15306, "activity_lines": [ 26.719818, 27.904358, 29.540834, 30.314911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.105, "volume": 19654, "typical_volume": 277644.55, "trend": 30.834581, "fair_value": 22.490416, "relative_strength": -16.469968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.881325, "energy": 82.863859, "activity_lines": [ 26.697453, 27.58502, 29.211023, 30.070357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.3903, "volume": 42085, "typical_volume": 265495.4, "trend": 30.764591, "fair_value": 22.54751, "relative_strength": -15.876743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.117573, "energy": 66.002771, "activity_lines": [ 26.87248, 27.396555, 28.93386, 29.848146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.725, "volume": 67816, "typical_volume": 256912.0, "trend": 30.660425, "fair_value": 22.610547, "relative_strength": -18.727038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.385206, "energy": 50.622853, "activity_lines": [ 27.19954, 27.332537, 28.715786, 29.652043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }