{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc40321a-327e-4dc9-b539-037382814faf", "symbol": "KSM-F121", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4A) STOXX Europe 600 Euro Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.866, "architecture_energy": 67.775, "architecture_maturity": 93.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.561, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.04, "rotation_up": 29.87, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 53.72, "downward_expansion": 78.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 149.366667, 404.538182, 4511.212381, 6983.569032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 151.2, "trend_reference": 9744.95, "distance_from_trend": -0.984484, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11103.157051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986382, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.777007, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989122, "excess_performance": -1.018023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984484, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283126, "read": "Falling" 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141.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.020343, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.006293, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.0869, "worst_return": -0.068379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.065411, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.010536, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.103047, "worst_return": -0.063972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.108494, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.032125, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.140764, "worst_return": -0.029972, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -67.346794, "energy": 88.571107, "activity_lines": [ 146.793333, 3964.970909, 8031.601905, 9745.740645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 146.6, "volume": 852, "typical_volume": 6419.05, "trend": 11072.296667, "fair_value": 11292.133974, "relative_strength": -98.893204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.003368, "energy": 89.497527, "activity_lines": [ 146.84, 2697.583636, 7052.600476, 9012.935699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 148.4, "volume": 3389, "typical_volume": 5671.2, "trend": 10635.91, "fair_value": 11228.598077, "relative_strength": -98.882293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.656288, "energy": 82.887398, "activity_lines": [ 147.373333, 1683.130909, 6141.262857, 8308.168172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 150.0, "volume": 5372, "typical_volume": 5259.65, "trend": 10196.576667, "fair_value": 11166.354487, "relative_strength": -98.812534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.285457, "energy": 68.450307, "activity_lines": [ 148.313333, 918.089091, 5294.323333, 7631.657849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 151.2, "volume": 302, "typical_volume": 4538.65, "trend": 9744.95, "fair_value": 11103.157051, "relative_strength": -98.777007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.866479, "energy": 67.775364, "activity_lines": [ 149.366667, 404.538182, 4511.212381, 6983.569032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }