{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc448bec-05ac-48b8-98ec-7e88134ff48a", "symbol": "URU", "name": "URU Metals Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.625, "architecture_energy": 88.653, "architecture_maturity": 56.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.602, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 9.03, "upward_expansion": 20.91, "deceleration": 37.14, "rotation_down": 84.25, "downward_expansion": 98.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0432, 0.047091, 0.051985, 0.054961 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0405, "trend_reference": 0.058975, "distance_from_trend": -0.313268, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.046784, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.134313, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.741806, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.4, "excess_performance": -0.451235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.313268, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118351, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.134313, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.347418, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.377418, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313161, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.15959, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1667752, "relative_activity": 0.70622, "balance": 1.15959, "dry_up": 0.816698, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140551, "annualized_volatility": 0.337562, "from_high_reference": -0.688462, "from_low_reference": 0.567944 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.058975, "fair_value_reference": 0.046784, "structural_low": 0.038, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.34375, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.022932, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.861111, "worst_return": -0.32, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.166265, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 1.285714, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.395349, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.334215, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.229275, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.086796, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.659091, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.147059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031579, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.292453, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.366923, "energy": 76.204, "activity_lines": [ 0.049333, 0.051909, 0.055237, 0.057602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0395, "volume": 3322372, "typical_volume": 2372324.55, "trend": 0.059917, "fair_value": 0.046909, "relative_strength": -39.506345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.701873, "energy": 87.520289, "activity_lines": [ 0.045667, 0.049218, 0.053508, 0.056213 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0405, "volume": 1667752, "typical_volume": 2361520.15, "trend": 0.058975, "fair_value": 0.046784, "relative_strength": -37.741806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.624839, "energy": 88.652524, "activity_lines": [ 0.0432, 0.047091, 0.051985, 0.054961 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }