{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc452743-2ee2-4464-9d15-80323d4a84c1", "symbol": "9595", "name": "WSM for Information Technology", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.315, "architecture_energy": 90.771, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.641, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.65, "rotation_up": 8.2, "upward_expansion": 21.96, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 82.73, "downward_expansion": 97.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.789333, 19.453636, 21.407714, 22.270796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.0, "trend_reference": 23.434333, "distance_from_trend": -0.274569, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.142599, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.454124, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.913129, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.377289, "excess_performance": -0.34546, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.274569, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094378, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.454124, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245867, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.339131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254737, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.377289, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.337232, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6026, "relative_activity": 0.285487, "balance": 0.337232, "dry_up": 0.39682, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116787, "annualized_volatility": 0.4161, "from_high_reference": -0.498525, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.434333, "fair_value_reference": 31.142599, "structural_low": 17.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.089038, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.231197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.062222, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076729, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.050741, "worst_return": -0.175185, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.133333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.159677, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.133333, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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31.739312, "relative_strength": -21.547469, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.754891, "energy": 49.05131, "activity_lines": [ 23.042667, 23.845818, 23.884809, 24.32329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 23.4, "volume": 6707, "typical_volume": 27691.2, "trend": 24.9755, "fair_value": 31.670392, "relative_strength": -13.706007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.407978, "energy": 44.682523, "activity_lines": [ 22.924, 23.73, 23.819381, 24.213064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.85, "volume": 6602, "typical_volume": 26977.55, "trend": 24.733, "fair_value": 31.581701, "relative_strength": -22.303555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.667881, "energy": 67.87471, "activity_lines": [ 22.082, 23.143273, 23.521571, 23.946903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.0, "volume": 17646, "typical_volume": 24202.7, "trend": 24.471, "fair_value": 31.47941, "relative_strength": -27.901865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.688807, "energy": 78.376365, "activity_lines": [ 20.933333, 22.251818, 23.066381, 23.577032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.01, "volume": 4700, "typical_volume": 22866.95, "trend": 24.038, "fair_value": 31.362722, "relative_strength": -35.070946, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.682618, "energy": 85.325411, "activity_lines": [ 19.46, 21.116727, 22.449381, 23.095677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.99, "volume": 5132, "typical_volume": 20920.3, "trend": 23.737667, "fair_value": 31.25574, "relative_strength": -29.162161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.561612, "energy": 85.811624, "activity_lines": [ 18.672667, 20.308727, 21.96019, 22.705484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.0, "volume": 6026, "typical_volume": 21107.8, "trend": 23.434333, "fair_value": 31.142599, "relative_strength": -33.913129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.315068, "energy": 90.771192, "activity_lines": [ 17.789333, 19.453636, 21.407714, 22.270796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }