{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc4561eb-8989-4583-8db6-65c30538d163", "symbol": "600512", "name": "Tengda Construction Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.217, "architecture_energy": 48.197, "architecture_maturity": 80.664, "architecture_confidence": 66.344, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.37, "rotation_up": 26.64, "upward_expansion": 19.84, "deceleration": 66.9, "rotation_down": 45.42, "downward_expansion": 69.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.975333, 1.973935, 2.078548, 2.172172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.99, "trend_reference": 2.284917, "distance_from_trend": -0.129071, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.310409, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.138681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.421795, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191057, "excess_performance": -0.147853, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129071, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06953, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.138681, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177851, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154218, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191057, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.146204, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114563760, "relative_activity": 0.854323, "balance": 0.146204, "dry_up": 0.838085, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0582, "annualized_volatility": 0.268792, "from_high_reference": -0.265683, "from_low_reference": 0.064171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.284917, "fair_value_reference": 2.310409, "structural_low": 1.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.004464, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.002638, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.221052, "worst_return": -0.131004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.064151, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.013872, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.226708, "worst_return": -0.14281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015573, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033183, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.145842, "worst_return": -0.167202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-70.016009, "energy": 88.27558, "activity_lines": [ 1.963247, 2.040363, 2.183643, 2.263011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.96, "volume": 116043261, "typical_volume": 147259258.55, "trend": 2.330917, "fair_value": 2.324142, "relative_strength": -14.046095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.430228, "energy": 85.943903, "activity_lines": [ 1.957316, 2.010909, 2.152226, 2.238199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.92, "volume": 117671182, "typical_volume": 143651861.7, "trend": 2.31325, "fair_value": 2.319285, "relative_strength": -16.491855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.08032, "energy": 81.511397, "activity_lines": [ 1.945333, 1.983223, 2.119762, 2.211689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.01, "volume": 101267128, "typical_volume": 138430169.9, "trend": 2.29925, "fair_value": 2.315006, "relative_strength": -12.57415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.421197, "energy": 57.906555, "activity_lines": [ 1.966667, 1.978231, 2.098726, 2.192124 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.99, "volume": 114563760, "typical_volume": 134098942.85, "trend": 2.284917, "fair_value": 2.310409, "relative_strength": -15.421795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.216697, "energy": 48.197163, "activity_lines": [ 1.975333, 1.973935, 2.078548, 2.172172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }