{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc52f301-7f17-40b4-bb54-316c03f98458", "symbol": "CNM", "name": "Core & Main Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.742, "architecture_energy": 45.619, "architecture_maturity": 35.656, "architecture_confidence": 85.532, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.63, "rotation_up": 16.25, "upward_expansion": 6.58, "deceleration": 46.29, "rotation_down": 61.99, "downward_expansion": 82.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.055333, 45.774727, 47.078143, 48.113097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 46.55, "trend_reference": 50.091667, "distance_from_trend": -0.070704, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.096282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.051863, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.268126, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.192821, "excess_performance": -0.318446, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070704, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031003, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.051863, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08183, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202681, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006222, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.192821, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.400765, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9556464, "relative_activity": 0.797551, "balance": 1.400765, "dry_up": 0.774321, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074464, "annualized_volatility": 0.281084, "from_high_reference": -0.307085, "from_low_reference": 0.111642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.091667, "fair_value_reference": 49.096282, "structural_low": 41.875, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.008772, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.027614, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.13088, "worst_return": -0.112332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.133006, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.100705, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.415506, "worst_return": -0.111214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.258081, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.185445, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.491924, "worst_return": -0.03556, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 46.086, 47.258727, 48.10681, 49.282022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.62, "volume": 8797491, "typical_volume": 12519510.1, "trend": 50.742333, "fair_value": 48.9275, "relative_strength": -23.460203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.25291, "energy": 70.585982, "activity_lines": [ 45.042667, 46.507091, 47.633619, 48.800194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.97, "volume": 8469879, "typical_volume": 12456104.15, "trend": 50.427667, "fair_value": 49.002564, "relative_strength": -22.854109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.751547, "energy": 65.452961, "activity_lines": [ 44.446667, 45.876364, 47.223286, 48.363269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.55, "volume": 9556464, "typical_volume": 11982264.7, "trend": 50.091667, "fair_value": 49.096282, "relative_strength": -20.268126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.742373, "energy": 45.619325, "activity_lines": [ 45.055333, 45.774727, 47.078143, 48.113097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }