{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc53dd07-5a53-46d6-8f58-f50b49ce58aa", "symbol": "XCNA", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI China A Screened Swap UCITS ETF 1C USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.844, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.373, "architecture_energy": 20.735, "architecture_maturity": 89.966, "architecture_confidence": 78.831, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.14, "rotation_up": 21.1, "upward_expansion": 42.94, "deceleration": 85.09, "rotation_down": 42.68, "downward_expansion": 34.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.047667, 22.240091, 22.316345, 22.075833 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.5425, "trend_reference": 21.736667, "distance_from_trend": 0.037073, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.679953, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.351473, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.077174, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.078976, "excess_performance": 0.02774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037073, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036344, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.351473, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05853, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10789, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078976, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.079006, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1994, "relative_activity": 0.132086, "balance": 0.079006, "dry_up": 1.91525, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030788, "annualized_volatility": 0.158231, "from_high_reference": -0.035821, "from_low_reference": 0.305298 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.736667, "fair_value_reference": 16.679953, "structural_low": 19.892, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.013375, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.001101, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.134512, "worst_return": -0.076848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.045373, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.004452, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.188675, "worst_return": -0.106222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.120979, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.095932, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.242608, "worst_return": -0.021654, "sufficient": false }, { 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.924103, "energy": 50.033075, "activity_lines": [ 22.743667, 22.681727, 22.350857, 22.006449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.352501, "volume": 1403, "typical_volume": 9453.25, "trend": 21.6015, "fair_value": 16.551001, "relative_strength": -2.240398, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.767602, "energy": 12.181475, "activity_lines": [ 22.274001, 22.446818, 22.294095, 21.993226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.9, "volume": 7827, "typical_volume": 9844.6, "trend": 21.652166, "fair_value": 16.590995, "relative_strength": -1.139463, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.29162, "energy": 21.077152, "activity_lines": [ 22.058334, 22.335091, 22.289393, 22.012484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.780001, "volume": 104428, "typical_volume": 15066.0, "trend": 21.688417, "fair_value": 16.630418, "relative_strength": -3.005258, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.482707, "energy": 20.613615, "activity_lines": [ 21.884667, 22.212409, 22.268095, 22.020731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.5425, "volume": 1994, "typical_volume": 15096.2, "trend": 21.736667, "fair_value": 16.679953, "relative_strength": -0.077174, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.372992, "energy": 20.734512, "activity_lines": [ 22.047667, 22.240091, 22.316345, 22.075833 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }