{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc575998-4c09-474b-bd4a-bdf2fb129883", "symbol": "MSCD34", "name": "Mastercard Incorporated", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 85.198, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.446, "architecture_energy": 62.689, "architecture_maturity": 12.306, "architecture_confidence": 59.286, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.25, "rotation_up": 71.55, "upward_expansion": 63.29, "deceleration": 21.88, "rotation_down": 17.19, "downward_expansion": 21.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 90.635334, 88.51835, 85.305601, 84.63802 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 91.610001, "trend_reference": 84.916499, "distance_from_trend": 0.078825, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 86.260298, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.062018, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.748864, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.003744, "excess_performance": 0.060793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078825, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039557, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.062018, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129145, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037489, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.268027, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003744, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.946016, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 146597, "relative_activity": 2.202438, "balance": 1.946016, "dry_up": 1.379575, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049079, "annualized_volatility": 0.262033, "from_high_reference": -0.149004, "from_low_reference": 0.177961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.916499, "fair_value_reference": 86.260298, "structural_low": 77.769997, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.07332, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.082721, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.068869, "worst_return": -0.087912, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.033134, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.074017, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.026737, "worst_return": -0.039531, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.08134, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.009166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08134, "worst_return": 0.08134, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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34199, "typical_volume": 57396.35, "trend": 85.775056, "fair_value": 85.676216, "relative_strength": -8.550485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.130573, "energy": 51.224592, "activity_lines": [ 87.559865, 84.804274, 82.99896, 83.593668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 87.290001, "volume": 25123, "typical_volume": 55221.85, "trend": 85.280133, "fair_value": 85.857852, "relative_strength": -10.404983, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.964379, "energy": 52.700245, "activity_lines": [ 87.932704, 85.569087, 83.440394, 83.691406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 93.5, "volume": 161386, "typical_volume": 60884.6, "trend": 85.157355, "fair_value": 86.068382, "relative_strength": -5.438647, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.001109, "energy": 67.074645, "activity_lines": [ 89.887373, 87.322446, 84.48293, 84.22172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.610001, "volume": 146597, "typical_volume": 66561.25, "trend": 84.916499, "fair_value": 86.260298, "relative_strength": -3.748864, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.445513, "energy": 62.68871, "activity_lines": [ 90.635334, 88.51835, 85.305601, 84.63802 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }