{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc590365-7017-4d81-bb4d-7513cc1929aa", "symbol": "PDJ", "name": "Pranda Jewelry Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.235, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.797, "architecture_energy": 10.673, "architecture_maturity": 20.3, "architecture_confidence": 68.231, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.86, "rotation_up": 24.67, "upward_expansion": 21.38, "deceleration": 34.76, "rotation_down": 26.13, "downward_expansion": 50.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.979333, 0.981273, 0.967238, 0.973118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.97, "trend_reference": 0.999, "distance_from_trend": -0.029029, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.561452, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.378783, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.009374, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.093458, "excess_performance": -0.285783, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029029, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080675, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.378783, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075643, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.260094, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120129, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093458, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.073968, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59200, "relative_activity": 0.298764, "balance": 2.073968, "dry_up": 0.913323, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045995, "annualized_volatility": 0.292811, "from_high_reference": -0.316901, "from_low_reference": 0.102273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.999, "fair_value_reference": 1.561452, "structural_low": 0.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.013334, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.010955, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.512605, "worst_return": -0.080188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.016871, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.009799, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.445378, "worst_return": -0.079439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.00216, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.224903, "worst_return": -0.191589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.089256, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.0639, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.468147, "worst_return": -0.343853, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-12-16", "end": "2023-01-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.189189, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-01-20", "end": "2023-03-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-03-10", "end": "2023-03-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-04-07", "end": "2023-05-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05912, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-12", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.127193, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025126, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018518, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028397, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009616, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088785, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.314528, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.224, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04902, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.831364, "volume": 1773600, "typical_volume": 3454663.0, "trend": 2.261465, "fair_value": 1.963009, "relative_strength": -17.202895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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0.961762, 0.980473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.98, "volume": 216600, "typical_volume": 211565.0, "trend": 1.014667, "fair_value": 1.572891, "relative_strength": -28.358051, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.810484, "energy": 15.551205, "activity_lines": [ 0.99, 0.981273, 0.963905, 0.977656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.98, "volume": 100000, "typical_volume": 202785.0, "trend": 1.005667, "fair_value": 1.566973, "relative_strength": -26.637243, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.428045, "energy": 10.270324, "activity_lines": [ 0.986667, 0.982364, 0.966095, 0.975419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.97, "volume": 59200, "typical_volume": 198150.0, "trend": 0.999, "fair_value": 1.561452, "relative_strength": -26.009374, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.797389, "energy": 10.67322, "activity_lines": [ 0.979333, 0.981273, 0.967238, 0.973118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }