{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc5b8997-5635-4209-a105-5b2f86eb33e3", "symbol": "ANKITMETAL", "name": "Ankit Metal & Power Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.041, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.555, "architecture_energy": 10.951, "architecture_maturity": 62.979, "architecture_confidence": 55.175, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.26, "rotation_up": 30.5, "upward_expansion": 20.78, "deceleration": 38.3, "rotation_down": 26.67, "downward_expansion": 54.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.546, 1.522909, 1.536524, 1.549484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.59, "trend_reference": 1.585333, "distance_from_trend": 0.002944, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.985256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.467382, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.955008, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.075581, "excess_performance": -0.031872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002944, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043443, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.467382, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02176, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04955, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0434, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075581, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.974818, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137753, "relative_activity": 1.018184, "balance": 2.974818, "dry_up": 1.151615, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082245, "annualized_volatility": 0.360557, "from_high_reference": -0.25, "from_low_reference": 0.232558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.585333, "fair_value_reference": 2.985256, "structural_low": 1.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.028571, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.031815, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 0.9375, "worst_return": -0.176471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.046875, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.099969, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.78, "worst_return": -0.390244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.101562, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.209149, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.085366, "worst_return": -0.433604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.359375, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.490664, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.036585, "worst_return": -0.485095, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123596, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067568, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.183099, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.158025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101124, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017544, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02981, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023109, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145022, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.26556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.06, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.4, "volume": 197348, "typical_volume": 192528.4, "trend": 3.951667, "fair_value": 4.558333, "relative_strength": -53.441759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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1.491333, 1.525455, 1.543762, 1.574129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.51, "volume": 196463, "typical_volume": 131915.5, "trend": 1.612333, "fair_value": 3.01391, "relative_strength": -10.022947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.600547, "energy": 43.034458, "activity_lines": [ 1.493333, 1.517818, 1.538762, 1.567075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.45, "volume": 80781, "typical_volume": 132430.85, "trend": 1.602667, "fair_value": 3.005256, "relative_strength": -13.626202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.873408, "energy": 48.190838, "activity_lines": [ 1.476, 1.500909, 1.529143, 1.556602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.53, "volume": 199780, "typical_volume": 136488.7, "trend": 1.597, "fair_value": 2.997756, "relative_strength": -6.296756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.430374, "energy": 28.647278, "activity_lines": [ 1.491333, 1.501273, 1.528143, 1.551914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.56, "volume": 204907, "typical_volume": 135676.3, "trend": 1.590667, "fair_value": 2.99109, "relative_strength": -6.470395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.251154, "energy": 15.812198, "activity_lines": [ 1.517333, 1.509273, 1.530952, 1.549527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.59, "volume": 137753, "typical_volume": 135292.85, "trend": 1.585333, "fair_value": 2.985256, "relative_strength": -4.955008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.554531, "energy": 10.95127, "activity_lines": [ 1.546, 1.522909, 1.536524, 1.549484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }