{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc5c1b1e-a0db-41bd-bb9f-5efaa1dae11c", "symbol": "300579", "name": "Beijing Certificate Authority Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.096, "architecture_energy": 42.538, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.316, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.91, "rotation_up": 27.18, "upward_expansion": 18.56, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 44.77, "downward_expansion": 70.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.506, 21.283272, 22.499381, 24.029226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.459999, "trend_reference": 26.299667, "distance_from_trend": -0.145997, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.215592, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.174738, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.91564, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.268404, "excess_performance": -0.275804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145997, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107911, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.174738, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166361, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01772, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.268404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.794925, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24199526, "relative_activity": 1.590824, "balance": 0.794925, "dry_up": 1.54003, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082745, "annualized_volatility": 0.354993, "from_high_reference": -0.480213, "from_low_reference": 0.158927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.299667, "fair_value_reference": 27.215592, "structural_low": 19.379999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.002716, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.012305, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.194989, "worst_return": -0.219574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.069193, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.022671, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.365626, "worst_return": -0.210811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009696, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.043168, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.336862, "worst_return": -0.305235, 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15404108.1, "trend": 27.205, "fair_value": 27.371893, "relative_strength": -33.342178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.137284, "energy": 70.272504, "activity_lines": [ 20.729333, 21.429454, 23.355095, 25.073075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.99, "volume": 23188227, "typical_volume": 15150911.2, "trend": 26.913333, "fair_value": 27.316559, "relative_strength": -34.126731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.401811, "energy": 66.994388, "activity_lines": [ 20.387333, 21.011818, 22.880381, 24.607591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.16, "volume": 24935780, "typical_volume": 15357863.0, "trend": 26.671333, "fair_value": 27.26758, "relative_strength": -25.14717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.990362, "energy": 55.641351, "activity_lines": [ 20.944667, 21.091818, 22.65919, 24.300925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.459999, "volume": 24199526, "typical_volume": 15211948.05, "trend": 26.299667, "fair_value": 27.215592, "relative_strength": -26.91564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.096107, "energy": 42.538228, "activity_lines": [ 21.506, 21.283272, 22.499381, 24.029226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }