{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc5c47ca-4e0c-4f70-9d88-9eb02ef521fb", "symbol": "WHRL3", "name": "Whirlpool S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.893, "architecture_energy": 35.115, "architecture_maturity": 53.888, "architecture_confidence": 84.797, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.43, "rotation_up": 20.84, "upward_expansion": 4.0, "deceleration": 57.94, "rotation_down": 50.43, "downward_expansion": 77.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.837333, 3.856545, 3.893854, 3.954203 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.86, "trend_reference": 4.054368, "distance_from_trend": -0.04794, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.666645, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052733, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.142734, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.114262, "excess_performance": -0.057214, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04794, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030121, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052733, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04759, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101427, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082811, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114262, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.009828, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16300, "relative_activity": 0.959388, "balance": 1.009828, "dry_up": 0.531195, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041251, "annualized_volatility": 0.156539, "from_high_reference": -0.160076, "from_low_reference": 0.069252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.054368, "fair_value_reference": 3.666645, "structural_low": 3.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.003988, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.001659, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.121277, "worst_return": -0.131229, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014331, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.007026, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.128668, "worst_return": -0.198728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037742, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009453, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.344, "worst_return": -0.154354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.08424, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005155, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102107, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023267, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108747, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", 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"activity_lines": [ 3.89, 3.908727, 3.959058, 4.034411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.88, "volume": 3900, "typical_volume": 22145.0, "trend": 4.111213, "fair_value": 3.659854, "relative_strength": -14.189841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.290358, "energy": 43.817486, "activity_lines": [ 3.884667, 3.9, 3.944295, 4.018726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.87, "volume": 3800, "typical_volume": 19200.0, "trend": 4.098249, "fair_value": 3.661883, "relative_strength": -11.935718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.967563, "energy": 47.46497, "activity_lines": [ 3.874667, 3.892, 3.931374, 4.003164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.88, "volume": 7000, "typical_volume": 18850.0, "trend": 4.083638, "fair_value": 3.663744, "relative_strength": -11.42501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.586235, "energy": 38.699344, "activity_lines": [ 3.872, 3.888, 3.921446, 3.989083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.75, "volume": 9000, "typical_volume": 18365.0, "trend": 4.067005, "fair_value": 3.664634, "relative_strength": -15.785368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.918735, "energy": 42.771196, "activity_lines": [ 3.831333, 3.861091, 3.901082, 3.967558 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.86, "volume": 16300, "typical_volume": 16990.0, "trend": 4.054368, "fair_value": 3.666645, "relative_strength": -10.142734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.892673, "energy": 35.114719, "activity_lines": [ 3.837333, 3.856545, 3.893854, 3.954203 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }