{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc5e7f9d-4bab-4451-a967-53df60074979", "symbol": "XAXJ", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI AC Asia ex Japan ESG Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.273, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.328, "architecture_energy": 30.461, "architecture_maturity": 24.041, "architecture_confidence": 77.14, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.58, "rotation_up": 15.59, "upward_expansion": 15.52, "deceleration": 44.39, "rotation_down": 55.98, "downward_expansion": 72.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.401333, 51.604909, 51.855333, 51.798344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 51.93, "trend_reference": 51.9565, "distance_from_trend": -0.00051, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.568141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.447999, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.020558, "excess_performance": -0.19145, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00051, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003025, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139612, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065272, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14448, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074134, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020558, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.873038, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33499, "relative_activity": 0.932025, "balance": 3.873038, "dry_up": 1.806375, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03047, "annualized_volatility": 0.16888, "from_high_reference": -0.046281, "from_low_reference": 0.071053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.9565, "fair_value_reference": 45.568141, "structural_low": 48.485001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.01735, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.010145, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.196037, "worst_return": -0.074802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.037832, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.032831, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.122785, "worst_return": -0.115297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.039059, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.141486, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.193544, "worst_return": -0.092884, 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-13.196742, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.206513, "energy": 9.212921, "activity_lines": [ 52.215333, 52.203636, 52.031857, 52.018194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.639999, "volume": 34370, "typical_volume": 31628.65, "trend": 52.046833, "fair_value": 45.366346, "relative_strength": -14.546755, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.407511, "energy": 26.993633, "activity_lines": [ 51.649999, 51.893454, 51.930881, 51.925086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.0, "volume": 74887, "typical_volume": 32934.75, "trend": 52.035167, "fair_value": 45.425128, "relative_strength": -13.499019, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.535248, "energy": 34.594837, "activity_lines": [ 51.316, 51.705272, 51.873143, 51.857548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.18, "volume": 116944, "typical_volume": 36224.4, "trend": 51.9925, "fair_value": 45.490609, "relative_strength": -13.487959, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.799459, "energy": 36.196987, "activity_lines": [ 51.220666, 51.578, 51.828357, 51.802376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.93, "volume": 33499, "typical_volume": 35942.15, "trend": 51.9565, "fair_value": 45.568141, "relative_strength": -14.447999, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.328417, "energy": 30.461088, "activity_lines": [ 51.401333, 51.604909, 51.855333, 51.798344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }