{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc5f3774-02c4-4c0e-b75f-7bc924c9c293", "symbol": "IXHL", "name": "Incannex Healthcare Ltd ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.947, "architecture_energy": 48.922, "architecture_maturity": 76.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.873, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.09, "rotation_up": 18.28, "upward_expansion": 6.22, "deceleration": 48.55, "rotation_down": 60.77, "downward_expansion": 79.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.074333, 3.253273, 3.435, 3.717327 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.155, "trend_reference": 4.6872, "distance_from_trend": -0.32689, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.355915, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.92723, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -67.644761, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.634838, "excess_performance": -0.822292, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.32689, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.371254, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.92723, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023825, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.676448, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.634838, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.440051, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 524762, "relative_activity": 0.337329, "balance": 0.440051, "dry_up": 0.361235, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187614, "annualized_volatility": 1.227395, "from_high_reference": -0.886048, "from_low_reference": 0.267068 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.6872, "fair_value_reference": 43.355915, "structural_low": 2.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.049093, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035118, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.840974, "worst_return": -0.543497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.353846, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.375501, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.928054, "worst_return": -0.510121, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.431554, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.286201, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.54657, "worst_return": -0.683463, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 852056, "typical_volume": 2097924.4, "trend": 5.5705, "fair_value": 44.232891, "relative_strength": -69.926447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.710932, "energy": 43.943431, "activity_lines": [ 3.448, 3.475455, 3.581619, 4.154331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.95, "volume": 473461, "typical_volume": 2021215.95, "trend": 5.270033, "fair_value": 43.935892, "relative_strength": -69.571187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.06836, "energy": 47.665063, "activity_lines": [ 3.264, 3.373818, 3.523048, 3.985267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.94, "volume": 397527, "typical_volume": 1653471.35, "trend": 4.978033, "fair_value": 43.643064, "relative_strength": -69.141309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.925918, "energy": 52.71619, "activity_lines": [ 3.117333, 3.288727, 3.468048, 3.834942 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.155, "volume": 524762, "typical_volume": 1555637.9, "trend": 4.6872, "fair_value": 43.355915, "relative_strength": -67.644761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.94654, "energy": 48.921604, "activity_lines": [ 3.074333, 3.253273, 3.435, 3.717327 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }