{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc5f8ee7-4991-4c90-a411-fefb5a8bee72", "symbol": "ULH", "name": "Universal Logistics Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.775, "architecture_energy": 9.443, "architecture_maturity": 51.308, "architecture_confidence": 54.13, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.92, "rotation_up": 31.5, "upward_expansion": 19.23, "deceleration": 40.78, "rotation_down": 26.54, "downward_expansion": 60.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.27, 15.704364, 16.12479, 16.604253 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.07, "trend_reference": 16.945332, "distance_from_trend": 0.184397, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.829918, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.278834, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.317815, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.125665, "excess_performance": -0.061789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.184397, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006615, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.278834, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.272733, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.447565, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125665, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.181125, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 339230, "relative_activity": 1.054835, "balance": 2.181125, "dry_up": 0.751769, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128629, "annualized_volatility": 1.129227, "from_high_reference": -0.24918, "from_low_reference": 0.722058 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.945332, "fair_value_reference": 27.829918, "structural_low": 11.654661, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.009926, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": -0.004407, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.407433, "worst_return": -0.192842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.008239, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.092162, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.383269, "worst_return": -0.199048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.058305, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023974, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.06677, "worst_return": -0.200424, "sufficient": true }, { 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323598.95, "trend": 16.938741, "fair_value": 28.195326, "relative_strength": -34.601264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.483234, "energy": 49.184023, "activity_lines": [ 14.858667, 15.1907, 16.606467, 16.865504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.29, "volume": 188670, "typical_volume": 323793.8, "trend": 16.890601, "fair_value": 28.093995, "relative_strength": -30.579504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.187025, "energy": 51.605827, "activity_lines": [ 14.538, 15.066783, 16.327156, 16.694618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.78, "volume": 222030, "typical_volume": 321309.35, "trend": 16.900693, "fair_value": 28.008989, "relative_strength": -20.597156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.671426, "energy": 41.305412, "activity_lines": [ 14.904, 15.189521, 16.199969, 16.622966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.38, "volume": 217132, "typical_volume": 319668.7, "trend": 16.839351, "fair_value": 27.897981, "relative_strength": -32.11185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.083534, "energy": 44.810444, "activity_lines": [ 14.408, 14.832137, 15.841591, 16.395824 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.07, "volume": 339230, "typical_volume": 321595.35, "trend": 16.945332, "fair_value": 27.829918, "relative_strength": -2.317815, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.775043, "energy": 9.443196, "activity_lines": [ 16.27, 15.704364, 16.12479, 16.604253 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }