{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc664386-2574-48e8-a729-0af039d57555", "symbol": "BITO", "name": "PROSHARES BITCOIN ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.683, "architecture_energy": 31.17, "architecture_maturity": 61.061, "architecture_confidence": 81.783, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.46, "rotation_up": 25.82, "upward_expansion": 15.91, "deceleration": 45.93, "rotation_down": 35.49, "downward_expansion": 63.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.669523, 8.578633, 9.029286, 9.260296 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.79, "trend_reference": 9.685771, "distance_from_trend": -0.092483, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.766389, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.18357, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.373376, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088289, "excess_performance": -0.213914, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092483, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122033, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.18357, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.233209, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.333734, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059445, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088289, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.431231, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 365121011, "relative_activity": 0.409626, "balance": 1.431231, "dry_up": 1.368552, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078245, "annualized_volatility": 0.377893, "from_high_reference": -0.499656, "from_low_reference": 0.118685 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.685771, "fair_value_reference": 10.766389, "structural_low": 7.857439, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.02066, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.011812, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.229496, "worst_return": -0.24448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.319598, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.219804, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.877403, "worst_return": -0.280637, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.57694, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.504303, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.282608, "worst_return": -0.202563, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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567820285, "typical_volume": 908368568.4, "trend": 9.807628, "fair_value": 10.740613, "relative_strength": -34.33443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.640356, "energy": 36.167379, "activity_lines": [ 8.596305, 8.550483, 9.08834, 9.325949 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.79, "volume": 365121011, "typical_volume": 891352802.2, "trend": 9.685771, "fair_value": 10.766389, "relative_strength": -33.373376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.682537, "energy": 31.170482, "activity_lines": [ 8.669523, 8.578633, 9.029286, 9.260296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }