{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc6a5211-3091-4e1f-9541-cfcd735caf7e", "symbol": "000928", "name": "Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.269, "architecture_energy": 61.756, "architecture_maturity": 61.598, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 56.03, "rotation_down": 53.54, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.064, 5.112545, 5.468552, 5.77918 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.07, "trend_reference": 6.14191, "distance_from_trend": -0.174524, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.159613, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.176896, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.250193, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.265217, "excess_performance": -0.272617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174524, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064576, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.176896, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188861, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222502, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031106, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265217, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.281208, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73910796, "relative_activity": 0.649984, "balance": 0.281208, "dry_up": 0.738853, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062718, "annualized_volatility": 0.282561, "from_high_reference": -0.310204, "from_low_reference": 0.065126 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.14191, "fair_value_reference": 6.159613, "structural_low": 4.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.021407, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.004548, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.22, "worst_return": -0.248975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.03828, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.033111, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.24216, "worst_return": -0.264453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.072581, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.043192, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.595486, "worst_return": -0.208791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.05651, "energy": 89.041971, "activity_lines": [ 5.029333, 5.288554, 5.725561, 6.003894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.94, "volume": 91093511, "typical_volume": 122917527.1, "trend": 6.238576, "fair_value": 6.203142, "relative_strength": -22.657081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.371299, "energy": 88.452759, "activity_lines": [ 4.968667, 5.183106, 5.616431, 5.916717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.23, "volume": 79992018, "typical_volume": 117626259.1, "trend": 6.193243, "fair_value": 6.180893, "relative_strength": -16.243147, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.891023, "energy": 77.232535, "activity_lines": [ 5.046667, 5.154753, 5.545539, 5.851648 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.07, "volume": 73910796, "typical_volume": 113711707.5, "trend": 6.14191, "fair_value": 6.159613, "relative_strength": -22.250193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.268901, "energy": 61.756131, "activity_lines": [ 5.064, 5.112545, 5.468552, 5.77918 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }