{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc6c8f65-3a20-41ac-9ac3-c827d03bfb63", "symbol": "001211", "name": "Suncha Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.039, "architecture_energy": 66.223, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.021, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.01, "rotation_up": 10.81, "upward_expansion": 13.43, "deceleration": 41.47, "rotation_down": 73.62, "downward_expansion": 89.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.018001, 22.081819, 29.047858, 30.291742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.280001, "trend_reference": 30.921667, "distance_from_trend": -0.27947, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.821795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02374, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.782145, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.23959, "excess_performance": -0.24699, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.27947, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019833, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02374, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.031978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247821, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.602813, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.23959, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.782801, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20269568, "relative_activity": 0.886489, "balance": 0.782801, "dry_up": 1.085484, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.304758, "annualized_volatility": 0.908161, "from_high_reference": -0.638664, "from_low_reference": 0.262323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.921667, "fair_value_reference": 22.821795, "structural_low": 17.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.049417, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.023493, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.176699, "worst_return": -0.100698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002272, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014016, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.289308, "worst_return": -0.163647, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.131938, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.240932, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.692523, "worst_return": -0.112283, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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34.382728, 35.44081, 34.062538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.41, "volume": 18490398, "typical_volume": 19450000.55, "trend": 31.803, "fair_value": 22.882311, "relative_strength": -33.069879, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.580591, "energy": 57.129175, "activity_lines": [ 25.018667, 31.213273, 34.222191, 33.375699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.35, "volume": 23584848, "typical_volume": 20336382.95, "trend": 31.562667, "fair_value": 22.860685, "relative_strength": -36.565676, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.31129, "energy": 68.571202, "activity_lines": [ 21.948, 27.85691, 32.74781, 32.507764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.440001, "volume": 37102982, "typical_volume": 21694574.85, "trend": 31.305333, "fair_value": 22.837222, "relative_strength": -36.113865, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.036064, "energy": 70.920369, "activity_lines": [ 20.094, 24.987819, 31.331477, 31.66114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.860001, "volume": 18320883, "typical_volume": 22285805.9, "trend": 31.060333, "fair_value": 22.818229, "relative_strength": -33.277722, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.279323, "energy": 79.290776, "activity_lines": [ 19.297334, 22.910183, 30.003334, 30.858215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.280001, "volume": 20269568, "typical_volume": 22864984.3, "trend": 30.921667, "fair_value": 22.821795, "relative_strength": -24.782145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.038707, "energy": 66.223076, "activity_lines": [ 20.018001, 22.081819, 29.047858, 30.291742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }