{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc6df0c7-48cd-45cf-9d64-870856be9cd6", "symbol": "4007", "name": "Al Hammadi Holding Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 79.643, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 17.456, "architecture_energy": 18.105, "architecture_maturity": 37.374, "architecture_confidence": 79.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.93, "rotation_up": 17.55, "upward_expansion": 50.97, "deceleration": 91.44, "rotation_down": 38.94, "downward_expansion": 21.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.390666, 26.814545, 26.776923, 26.524939 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.299999, "trend_reference": 26.295742, "distance_from_trend": 0.000162, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.405312, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.332577, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.883492, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.016949, "excess_performance": 0.048778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000162, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017546, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.332577, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071593, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058835, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134188, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016949, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.744267, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1654871, "relative_activity": 1.629922, "balance": 1.744267, "dry_up": 0.996332, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044658, "annualized_volatility": 0.23906, "from_high_reference": -0.253174, "from_low_reference": 0.140268 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.295742, "fair_value_reference": 39.405312, "structural_low": 23.064757, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01486, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.018061, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.17552, "worst_return": -0.05665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.062516, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.05575, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.192727, "worst_return": -0.024631, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.126552, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.113761, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.274521, "worst_return": 0.059151, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.030732, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059022, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.06838, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072734, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.63913, "energy": 34.53506, "activity_lines": [ 27.324, 27.283526, 26.764751, 26.502235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.9, "volume": 443105, "typical_volume": 973306.95, "trend": 26.412079, "fair_value": 39.966268, "relative_strength": -4.276037, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.095545, "energy": 18.990166, "activity_lines": [ 27.094666, 27.286266, 26.82494, 26.533151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.719999, "volume": 561158, "typical_volume": 944126.75, "trend": 26.369782, "fair_value": 39.778511, "relative_strength": -5.037728, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.253616, "energy": 21.580195, "activity_lines": [ 26.878666, 27.216534, 26.854318, 26.553017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.940001, "volume": 1387197, "typical_volume": 968040.4, "trend": 26.305424, "fair_value": 39.589875, "relative_strength": -5.430381, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.872024, "energy": 16.810036, "activity_lines": [ 26.514667, 26.980784, 26.799415, 26.525289 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.299999, "volume": 1654871, "typical_volume": 1015307.05, "trend": 26.295742, "fair_value": 39.405312, "relative_strength": -5.883492, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.455836, "energy": 18.104998, "activity_lines": [ 26.390666, 26.814545, 26.776923, 26.524939 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }