{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc7363bd-83df-4daa-b1fa-fcd5578564a5", "symbol": "TIMKEN", "name": "Timken India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.459, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.309, "architecture_energy": 56.869, "architecture_maturity": 6.274, "architecture_confidence": 63.445, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.58, "rotation_up": 14.56, "upward_expansion": 27.08, "deceleration": 49.49, "rotation_down": 70.66, "downward_expansion": 56.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 3212.571387, 3297.578542, 3410.716287, 3409.157894 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3351.0, "trend_reference": 3362.525334, "distance_from_trend": -0.003428, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3212.234934, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043199, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.659298, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.034738, "excess_performance": 0.078447, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003428, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034908, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043199, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080014, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046593, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034738, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.003384, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 303981, "relative_activity": 1.237596, "balance": 1.003384, "dry_up": 1.189722, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053631, "annualized_volatility": 0.315097, "from_high_reference": -0.112318, "from_low_reference": 0.196572 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3362.525334, "fair_value_reference": 3212.234934, "structural_low": 3000.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.012813, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018539, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.005071, "worst_return": -0.040057, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.052303, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088267, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06033, "worst_return": -0.164935, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.126047, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.199684, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.032575, "worst_return": -0.219519, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.158515, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006282, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.137836, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047674, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073161, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124019, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052756, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.174189, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.072587, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0725, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3170.154297, "volume": 451299, "typical_volume": 578930.8, "trend": 3098.513493, "fair_value": 2146.355567, "relative_strength": -3.966435, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.581331, "energy": 58.78307, "activity_lines": [ 3215.729281, 3369.533429, 3448.777803, 3422.019652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3144.600098, "volume": 153323, "typical_volume": 255931.65, "trend": 3349.012004, "fair_value": 3212.323192, "relative_strength": -0.760946, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.871061, "energy": 65.307635, "activity_lines": [ 3162.878646, 3309.286905, 3419.202288, 3409.029637 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3351.0, "volume": 303981, "typical_volume": 245622.2, "trend": 3362.525334, "fair_value": 3212.234934, "relative_strength": 4.659298, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.309039, "energy": 56.868957, "activity_lines": [ 3212.571387, 3297.578542, 3410.716287, 3409.157894 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }