{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc75be5e-9e48-487c-9f49-e992885d96de", "symbol": "TPG0", "name": "The Platform Group SE & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.583, "architecture_energy": 84.399, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 27.39, "upward_expansion": 20.94, "deceleration": 37.57, "rotation_down": 60.45, "downward_expansion": 96.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.7988, 0.914945, 1.571367, 2.053348 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.824, "trend_reference": 2.737667, "distance_from_trend": -0.699014, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.908974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.880735, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -84.54005, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.8068, "excess_performance": -0.871439, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.699014, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.391134, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.880735, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234577, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.8454, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204883, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.8068, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.244181, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1247824, "relative_activity": 1.021736, "balance": 0.244181, "dry_up": 1.738506, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.500187, "annualized_volatility": 1.233381, "from_high_reference": -0.925091, "from_low_reference": 0.177143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.737667, "fair_value_reference": 6.908974, "structural_low": 0.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.069215, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.077229, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.28839, "worst_return": -0.629231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.159799, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.151395, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.392344, "worst_return": -0.771345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.077743, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.162814, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.433162, "worst_return": -0.597647, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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1.005067, 1.547745, 2.183529, 2.652045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.826, "volume": 1343211, "typical_volume": 917092.55, "trend": 3.195467, "fair_value": 6.995987, "relative_strength": -84.957353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.095006, "energy": 89.002416, "activity_lines": [ 0.911867, 1.338509, 2.011871, 2.489125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.782, "volume": 2907178, "typical_volume": 1040859.4, "trend": 3.041533, "fair_value": 6.969077, "relative_strength": -85.47116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.749618, "energy": 88.881114, "activity_lines": [ 0.846267, 1.152436, 1.850448, 2.333417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.76, "volume": 2994588, "typical_volume": 1180418.25, "trend": 2.883533, "fair_value": 6.940615, "relative_strength": -85.770837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.446133, "energy": 86.790779, "activity_lines": [ 0.8012, 1.006145, 1.701229, 2.186222 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.824, "volume": 1247824, "typical_volume": 1221278.75, "trend": 2.737667, "fair_value": 6.908974, "relative_strength": -84.54005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.582796, "energy": 84.398619, "activity_lines": [ 0.7988, 0.914945, 1.571367, 2.053348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }